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Supercomputer Predicts Premier League Table As Arsenal Take Big Step Towards Title

Arsenal’s slender win at the London Stadium had huge ramifications at both ends of the table.
Leandro Trossard struck late on to seal a crucial win for the Premier League leaders at West Ham United.
Leandro Trossard struck late on to seal a crucial win for the Premier League leaders at West Ham United. | Adrian DENNIS/AFP/Getty Images

Arsenal’s trip to the London Stadium was the experience so many Gunners supporters dreaded it would be.

With so much on the line for both teams, the contest eventually descended into one that neither team wanted the lose. Arsenal, riding high from their progression into the Champions League final, started brightly but were soon pegged back by the plucky Hammers.

The Premier League leaders subsequently toiled, with the growing hosts creating the necessary moments worthy of winning the contest. However, David Raya was on hand to potentially ‘Stefan Ortega’ Arsenal‘s way to glory. His monumental save to deny Mateus Fernandes arrived just minutes before Leandro Trossard struck gold after a curious Martin Ødegaard meander.

In the end, Trossard’s goal was lost to the drama that followed, with West Ham believing they’d equalized at the death. This time, VAR came to Arsenal’s aid. Pablo’s impediment of Raya was deemed worthy of an overturn, with the seismic nature of the incident rationalising the lengthy delay and array of angles. That’s soccer in 2026, folks!

Anyway, after all that, here’s how Opta’s supercomputer projects the 2025–26 Premier League table to look come the end of May.


Supercomputer Predicts 2025–26 Premier League Title Race

Erling Haaland, Omar Marmoush
Man City will fight until the very last moment. | Simon Stacpoole/Offside/Getty Images

Predicted Position

Team

Actual Points

Predicted Points

Title Chances

1.

Arsenal

79

83.37

87.2%

2.

Man City

74

79.86

12.8%

Arsenal’s likelihood of winning their first Premier League title in 22 years has jumped up to 87.2% from 79.7% after Manchester City eventually eased past Brentford 3–0 on Saturday afternoon.

While City have the chance this week to cut the Gunners’ lead to two points, Opta are doubtless taking the difficulty of the remaining fixtures into account. The Cityzens must win out the season to have any chance of reclaiming the title. But a tough trip south to Bournemouth, who seemingly cannot lose and are hunting a Champions League berth, is still on their agenda.

Arsenal, meanwhile, have the relegated Burnley and a Crystal Palace side who couldn’t care a jot about how the remainder of their domestic campaign plays out left to play. The Eagles are now UEFA Conference League or bust, and Oliver Glasner will rotate handily for their final day clash against Mikel Arteta’s side when there is a European trophy on the line three days later.

It’s got to be the Gunners’ time, right? Everything is suddenly going their way.


Supercomputer Predicts 2025–26 Race for Europe

Champions League Battle

Ollie Watkins, Morgan Rogers
Aston Villa could only muster a draw at Burnley. | Neville Williams/Aston Villa FC/Getty Images

Predicted Position

Team

Actual Points

Predicted Points

UCL Qualification Chances

3.

Man Utd

65

67.94

100%

4.

Liverpool

59

62.37

96.98%

5.

Aston Villa

59

61.03

87.36%

6.

Bournemouth

55

57.48

10.78%

7.

Brighton

53

56.08

4.88%

Manchester United secured their return to Europe’s premier club competition by beating Liverpool 3–2 this month, and they’re bound to be joined among the continent’s aristocracy by the Merseyside Reds.

Supporters are fed up with Arne Slot, and they’ll enter the summer bereft of positivity, but a Champions League berth is at least something to cling to. Their draw with Chelsea on Saturday means the Reds are crawling towards a top-five finish.

They were aided by another Aston Villa slip, with the Clarets drawing 2–2 at Burnley on Sunday. The Villans could qualify for the Champions League twice if they beat Freiburg in the Europa League final later this month, but their recent domestic malaise means Bournemouth are suddenly closing in.

Still, Opta remains bullish on Villa’s top-five hopes, with the Cherries only outsiders to usurp either Liverpool or Villa, given that just two gameweeks remain. Brighton & Hove Albion’s chances of a top-five finish were aided by their dismantling of Wolverhampton Wanderers, but it would take something special for the Seagulls to sneak in with so little of the season remaining.


The Mix for Sixth

Cole Palmer
Chelsea stopped the rot at Anfield. | Darren Walsh/Chelsea FC/Getty Images

Predicted Position

Team

Actual Points

Predicted Points

6th-Place Chances

6.

Bournemouth

55

57.48

48.63%

7.

Brighton

53

56.08

32.12%

8.

Brentford

51

53.80

3.85%

9.

Chelsea

49

52.13

0.8%

10.

Everton

49

52.05

0.37%

Much of the Premier League’s top half will be pleading that Unai Emery works his magic in the Europa League final later this month. An Aston Villa victory in Istanbul would mean sixth-place also qualifies for next season’s Champions League.

And the race is fierce. Bournemouth, still unbeaten since Antoine Semenyo fled to Manchester, are in pole position, but Brighton’s fixtures are slightly less daunting, and Fabian Hürzeler’s men are merely two points adrift.

Brentford’s hopes took a hit at the Etihad Stadium on Saturday, while Chelsea and Everton’s chances of competing among Europe’s elite were trimmed to almost nil after their draws over the weekend.

The Blues at least brought a historically bad losing run to an end, and supporters had reason to be encouraged from their side’s performance at Anfield. Still, there’s a genuine possibility that the Blues aren’t competing on the continent at all next season. BlueCo’s masterplan, they’re calling it.


Supercomputer Predicts 2025–26 Relegation Battle

Roberto De Zerbi, Nuno Espírito Santo.
Roberto De Zerbi is trying to outwit Nuno Espírito Santo. | Rob Newell/CameraSport/Getty Images, Kevin Hodgson/MI News/NurPhoto/Getty Images

Predicted Position

Team

Actual Points

Predicted Points

Relegation Chances

14.

Leeds

43

46.44

0%

15.

Crystal Palace

44

46.23

0%

16.

Nottingham Forest

43

45.43

0%

17.

Tottenham

37

41.23

12.35%

18.

West Ham

36

38.36

87.65%

19.

Burnley

22

22.82

100%

20.

Wolves

18

20.44

100%

Relegation should be an unfathomable potential for a club of Tottenham Hotspur’s financial standing, and the existential threat of succumbing to the second tier meant supporters clenched their fists with glee and without shame when Trossard struck in east London.

Sure, the result means their fiercest rivals will probably win the league, but the title-bound Gunners have given the Lilywhites an emboldened shot of avoiding the drop. Beat Leeds United on Monday night, and Spurs’ relegation chances will diminish further from the 12.35% at which they currently stand.

West Ham’s defeat also means Leeds, Nottingham Forest and Crystal Palace are safe.


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Published | Modified
James Cormack
JAMES CORMACK

James Cormack is a freelancer soccer writer for Sports Illustrated FC. An expert on Tottenham Hotspur and Arsenal, he follows Italian and German soccer, taking particular interest in the work of Antonio Conte & Julian Nagelsmann.