Packers Will Face One of Most Difficult Schedules in 2026 (Or They Won’t)

After announcing games in dribs and drabs, the NFL will finally release the 2026 NFL schedule on Thursday.

Of course, the Packers already know their opponents. Most of the schedule is predetermined. Along with the usual games against their NFC North rivals, the Packers will play the AFC East and the NFC South. That’s 14 of the 17 games. Also, as the second-place team in the NFC North, they will face the second-place team in the NFC East (Dallas Cowboys) and NFC West (Los Angeles Rams). Game 17 will be against the second-place team in the AFC South (Houston Texans).

Because the Packers reside in the powerful NFC North and will play a second-place schedule, it stands to reason that they will face a challenging schedule.

But is that the case?

Here are the old-school and new-school looks at Green Bay’s strength of schedule.

Old-School Strength of Schedule: 2025 Records

Based on last year’s records, the Packers will play the third-most difficult schedule this season.

Green Bay’s 17 games this season will come against teams with a combined winning percentage of .538 last season.

The Chicago Bears will play the most challenging slate of games with a combined winning percentage of .550. The Miami Dolphins – aka Packers South – are next at .542. Green Bay and the Arizona Cardinals are tied for third at .538, and the Kansas City Chiefs are fifth at .536.

In the NFC North, the Bears are first, the Packers are third, the Vikings are 11th (.519) and the Lions are 27th (.467).

Here are Green Bay’s slate of opponents with last year’s records.

Home: Minnesota (9-8), Detroit (9-8), Chicago (11-6), Atlanta (8-9), Carolina (8-9), Buffalo (12-5), Miami (7-10), Dallas (7-9-1), Houston (12-5).

Road: Minnesota (9-8), Detroit (9-8), Chicago (11-6), New Orleans (6-11), Tampa Bay (8-9), New England (14-3), New York Jets (3-14), Los Angeles Rams (12-5).

Of Green Bay’s 17 matchups, 10 will come against opponents that had winning records and three more that finished 8-9. Six games will come against teams with 10-plus wins and three will come against teams with 10-plus losses.

New-School Strength of Schedule: Vegas Projections

The problem with basing strength of schedule on last year’s record is the Packers aren’t playing last year’s teams. Players came and went in free agency. Entire draft classes were added. In some cases, there’s a new head coach. Players get better or worse as they get older.

Using sportsbook win totals is a better way to view strength of schedule because all of those additions and subtractions are taken into account.

From that perspective, Green Bay will play a middle-of-the-pack schedule with the 16th-most-difficult list of opponents.

Here is Green Bay’s slate of opponents, with their projected win totals from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Home: Minnesota (8.5), Detroit (10.5), Chicago (9.5), Atlanta (7.5), Carolina (7.5), Buffalo (10.5), Miami (4.5), Dallas (9.5), Houston (9.5).

Road: Minnesota (8.5), Detroit (10.5), Chicago (9.5), New Orleans (7.5), Tampa Bay (8.5), New England (9.5), New York Jets (5.5), Los Angeles Rams (11.5).

The Packers are scheduled to play nine games against teams projected to finish with winning records and five games against teams projected to finish with losing records. The woeful state of the Jets and Dolphins skews things.

According to Sharp Football, the Lions will play the easiest schedule this season. They are followed by the Saints, Bengals, Browns and Jets.

In the NFC North, Detroit is No. 1 in terms of easiest schedules, Minnesota is 16th, Green Bay is 17th and Chicago is 27th.

Green Bay’s over/under, by the way, is 9.5 wins.

“Most seasons are determined by the guys that are coming back, not necessarily the guys you’re getting in the draft,” general manager Brian Gutekunst said after the draft. “These guys are just starting their NFL journey, and there’s so much in front of them, and I feel really good about all of them, and I think they’re going to have a chance to have an opportunity to be very good players in this league.

“But you don’t win the Super Bowl during the draft, but I felt like over the course of the three days that we did some did some good things to help our football team and help the group that’s coming back, but it remains to be seen how these guys’ NFL careers will go.:

What About 2027?

It’s never too early to think about next season. Along with the NFC North games, the Packers are scheduled to play the NFC West and AFC West.

Home: Los Angeles Rams, Seattle Seahawks, Denver Broncos, Las Vegas Raiders, NFC East.

Away: Arizona Cardinals, San Francisco 49ers, Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Chargers, NFC South, AFC North.

(The first-place team in the NFC North will play the first-place teams from the NFC East, NFC South and AFC North, and so on.)

It’s far too early to consider such things, because a lot will change between now and September 2027, but that could be a daunting schedule.

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