Realistic Stat Projection for Cowboys Rookie Malachi Lawrence

The Dallas Cowboys recently wrapped up their rookie minicamp, which gave the coaching staff its first chance to work with their 2026 draft class.

During the short session, the player who stood out more than any other was defensive back Caleb Downs. That's unsurprising given Downs was taken at No. 11 overall and joins the Cowboys with immense potential.

He wasn't their only first-round pick this season, however, as Dallas added Malachi Lawrence with the 23rd overall pick. The UCF product doesn't have the same pedigree as Downs, but he's a promising player who can help as a pass-rusher. He's shown some flashes against the run, but as Cowboys On SI writer Mike Moraitis points out, he will need to improve in this area to reach his potential.

Stat projection for Dallas Cowboys first-round pick Malachi Lawrence

Dallas Cowboys OLB Malachi Lawrence goes through a drill during practice at the Ford Center at the Star Training Facility. | Chris Jones-Imagn Images

Dallas has a new defensive coordinator in Christian Parker, so looking at their snap counts from 2025 won't give us a great indication of the snap distribution with Lawrence, Rashan Gary, and Donovan Ezeiruaku. We could look to the Philadelphia Eagles, where Parker was the passing game coordinator and defensive backs coach, but he's already said he will run his own defense rather than copy Vic Fangio's.

That said, it wouldn't be surprising to see Lawrence as the primary reserve behind Gary and Ezeiruaku. That should give him somewhere between 40-45% of the snaps, a number that could improve should he prove to be a superior option to Ezeiruaku. That being the case, he has a chance to produce decent numbers as a rookie.

Malachi Lawrence rookie stat projection:
41 tackles
8 tackles for loss
5.5 sacks
2 forced fumbles

Malachi Lawrence stat projection compared to Donovan Ezeiruaku 's rookie season

Dallas Cowboys OLB Donovan Ezeiruaku celebrates after a play during the first quarter against the New York Giants. | Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

As a rookie, Donovan Ezeiruaku played in 55% of the defensive snaps. He had nine starts in 17 games and finished with 40 tackles, nine tackles for loss, two sacks, and a forced fumble.

Overall, Ezeiruaku had a promising campaign, earning a 73.1 overall grade from PFF. Had Dallas been a better team overall on defense, Ezeiruaku likely would have had better overall numbers.

This year, they have a better defense that Lawrence will be joining. The Cowboys also have more hope with Parker as the coordinator, which is why Lawrence's stat projection is slightly better than what Ezeiruaku recorded as a rookie.

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