Cowboys Have Difficult 2026 NFL Schedule, But Here's What Really Matters

The Dallas Cowboys are stuck in a two-year playoff drought and it's not going to be easy to break it. That's because the Cowboys have one of the most difficult schedules in the NFL this coming season.

There are two methods to determine strength of schedule in the NFL: opponent win percentage from the previous season, or by utilizing win totals from Vegas oddsmakers.

We prefer the latter method because the former doesn't account for the changes teams make during an offseason. As we know in the NFL, things can change drastically from year to year. Look at the Seattle Seahawks, for example: they missed the playoffs in 2023 and 2024, only to turn into a juggernaut in 2025.

Warren Sharp of Sharp Football Analysis has pieced together every team's strength of schedule for the 2026 campaign using that method and the Cowboys have the fourth-toughest slate in the NFL behind only the Arizona Cardinals, Miami Dolphins and Carolina Panthers.

That means the hill to getting back to the postseason is steeper, but here's the one thing that really matters and will determine if Dallas is a playoff team or not.

The one thing that really matters

Detroit Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs is tackled by Dallas Cowboys defensive tackle Quinnen Williams. — Detroit Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs and Dallas Cowboys defensive tackle Quinnen Williams. | Lon Horwedel-Imagn Images

We know the Cowboys are going to have an elite offense in 2026. We also know that does not mean the Cowboys are going to make the playoffs because, after all, they had the No. 7 scoring unit last season and still fell well short.

Instead, we know it's all about the defense. Even Jerry Jones has admitted the unit held Dallas back and the team could have made a playoff run otherwise.

"I'll tell you, when you have the challenges we had last year, there's no place to go but up on the defensive side of the ball," Jones said. "Had we played a lick of defense last year, we would've had ourselves, I think, a real playoff run."

With even an average defensive showing in 2026, Dallas is going to be able to outscore most of the teams on their schedule. That's the Cowboys' best remedy to overcoming such a tough slate of games this coming season.

We love everything the Cowboys have done on defense in 2026. Jerry and Co. attacked every single need, whether through trade, free agency, or the draft, and there is a lot more promise and hope on the defensive side of the ball, especially with Christian Parker at the helm instead of Matt Eberflus.

Dallas Cowboys cornerback Caleb Downs is coached through a drill with defensive coordinator Christian Parker | Chris Jones-Imagn Images

But there are question marks with that promise and hope. We still have to see how the new pieces fit together, and if the rookies and other unproven players, like Donovan Ezeiruaku, for example, are going to be as good as we think they can be.

Even one of the Cowboys' biggest offseason acquisitions, Rashan Gary, comes with a concern after he was very quiet in the second half of last season. Until we know more about what the Cowboys are working with, it's hard to project just how good this team is going to be.

But if even some of those pieces pan out and Dallas gets better on defense, watch out, because this team could have one of the most complete rosters in the NFL.

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