The Colts Have an Easy Schedule on Paper: Here's What Really Matters

Based on final records from 2025, the Indianapolis Colts have the T-4th easiest schedule heading into the 2026-27 season.

Tied with the Atlanta Falcons for opponent win percentage (.465), Indianapolis has a prime opportunity to continue what it started a season ago. They had a similar strength of schedule heading into last season, a .464 percentage (8th-lowest in 2025) that the Colts took advantage of, at least early on.

Below are the Colts' 2026-27 opponents. On top of their usual six-game slate against the AFC South, Indianapolis is also slated to play against the NFC East and the AFC North. When they'll play said matchups comes later this week during the official release on Thursday, May 14th, at 8 PM EST on NFL Network.

HOME: Houston Texans, Tennessee Titans, Jacksonville Jaguars, Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants, Cincinnati Bengals, Miami Dolphins, Baltimore Ravens,

AWAY: Houston Texans, Tennessee Titans, Jacksonville Jaguars, Minnesota Vikings, Kansas City Chiefs, Pittsburgh Steelers, Cleveland Browns, Washington Commanders, Philadelphia Eagles

The Colts famously took the league by storm in 2025, quickly getting hot to the tune of an 8-2 start behind quarterback Daniel Jones, and have been riding that high ever since, despite a brutal seven-game losing streak to finish the season.

This hot start came off the heels of a lively training camp battle between quarterbacks Anthony Richardson Sr. and Daniel Jones, the latter of which won the starting job and hasn't looked back since.

Jones' reclamation had doubters second-guessing themselves, as well as provided a new perspective on head coach Shane Steichen.

People were reminded that Steichen was brought in to right the ship on offense and provide stability at the quarterback position, and such a reminder was in the form of a historically great start to the season, one that featured such levels of efficiency that had previously not been met.

That is, until Daniel Jones was hit with a wave of serious injuries -- a fractured fibula that he played with until an Achilles tear in early December ended his season entirely. After he initially became injured, the Colts made a blockbuster move by trading their 2026 and 2027 first-round picks plus wide receiver Adonai Mitchell for star cornerback Sauce Gardner.

Although this move reeked of desperation, especially when using hindsight bias, general manager Chris Ballard was finally allowed to make a big splash in his first season under new ownership, providing support from above in his attempts to right his wrongs.

With their backs against the wall, Chris Ballard and Co. have put all their eggs into the basket that is Daniel Jones, rewarding his efforts in 2025 with a 2-year, $88M extension earlier this offseason. This move is the last line of defense for this regime, as quarterback stability is something they've been looking to achieve since Andrew Luck abruptly walked out the door ahead of the 2019 season.

What Really Matters

This year's schedule may technically be just as easy as last season, but the year-to-year turnover is but a mere projection, as teams are constantly outplaying or underperforming their seasonal expectations.

The Colts are entering a season with true make-or-break aspirations, at least from the managerial side of things. Indianapolis has made it to the playoffs just twice in nine seasons under general manager Chris Ballard, winning just one contest in three games.

Outside of proving that they're a legitimate contender, and not something that rivals the last several seasons of the Pittsburgh Steelers -- aka limping to the playoffs just to lose to glorious fashion -- the Colts desperately need to reclaim the throne that is the AFC South.

Finally winning the division under Chris Ballard would certainly be an achievement in itself, but the Colts need to establish themselves as the AFC South's top dog to ensure playoff involvement.

Best/Worst Case Scenarios

Last season, the easy part of the Colts' schedule came during the aforementioned hot start that resulted in an 8-2 record before all hell broke loose. The Colts finished the season at 8-9, with the collapse in question serving as yet another footnote to the team's inability to finish under Chris Ballard.

Although last year's outcome may suggest otherwise, the best scenario for the Colts' schedule is that it is once again backloaded.

With Daniel Jones set to return from rehab during training camp, and with nothing but hope that has him as the Week 1 starter, the Colts would be best off having their easier part of the schedule come early and all at once, like last season.

This would provide Daniel Jones the opportunity to slowly but surely return to form, and if he's not 100% healthy when the regular season arrives, then either Anthony Richardson Sr. or Riley Leonard would fill the void in the meantime. You'd much rather resort to your backup early in the season, against 'easier' competition, as opposed to being forced to try and right the ship entirely if Jones were to reinjure.

The worst-case scenario would be the opposite. Not only would the Colts' situation benefit from running back a similar schedule in terms of health, but this team needs to prove it can go the distance that is a 17-game season. Getting to the playoffs is the lowest bar for this regime at the point, and solidifying themselves as true contenders as opposed to just squeeking in is what matters most.

Sign Up For the Colts Daily Digest - OnSI’s Indianapolis Colts Newsletter

Add us as a preferred source on Google

Follow