Why Luther Burden, Not Rome Odunze, is the Bears' True No. 1 WR in 2026

When the Chicago Bears traded receiver D.J. Moore to the Buffalo Bills ahead of free agency, they cleared the runway for one of their younger receivers to take his place at the top of the depth chart. Many analysts assume that Rome Odunze, the No. 9 pick from the 2024 NFL draft, would be that guy, but there's good reason to believe that Luther Burden III, not Rome Odunze, will be the Bears' true No. 1 receiver in 2026.

One stat makes Burden a better fit for Ben Johnson's offense than Rome Odunze

Rome Odunze may have been a Top 10 pick in the 2024 NFL draft, but it's important to remember that he was selected before the Bears hired Ben Johnson as their head coach. That's not to say that Johnson doesn't like Odunze, or that Odunze can't succeed in Chicago, but the first receiver that Johnson added to his roster was Luther Burden III in 2025.

There's a lot to like about Burden's game, but there's one stat in particular that leads one to believe that Luther Burden is headed for a breakout in Ben Johnson's offense, and that's average depth of target, or how far beyond the line of scrimmage a player is when a pass comes his way. For Burden, his number was 7.67 yards. Compare that to standout Detroit Lions receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown, whose average depth of target in his final year with Ben Johnson was 7.67 yards.

I'm not suggesting that Burden and St. Brown are the exact same kind of player, but it's striking how similar they are in their strengths and how Ben Johnson has used them in his offense. And that's not the only stat that bodes well for Burden. He also led the league in average separation on catches with 4.6 yards, according to NFL Next Gen Stats, and was third out of all receivers with 40 or more receptions in yards per route run with 2.67, behind only Puka Nacua and Jaxon Smith-Njigba.

Odunze may have already fumbled his chance at the WR1 spot

The race to be Chicago's WR1 hasn't even truly begun yet, but Odunze dug himself quite a hole in 2025. He got off to a hot start and appeared poised for a true breakout season, but he began to struggle down the stretch. While it's true that he battled a foot injury during the second half of the season, he also made some key blunders. Remember, Odunze dropped a perfectly thrown touchdown pass from Caleb Williams on the Bears' opening drive of their heartbreaking Divisional round loss to the Rams. That cost Chicago seven points in what ended up being a three-point game.

Burden had his own issues with drops and running incorrect routes, but that's easier to wave away. He was a second-round rookie; some bumps along the way were to be expected. But Odunze was a former No. 9 overall pick and was in his second season. Even worse, catching tough passes in traffic was his calling card in college. That elite trait made him a top prospect, and so far, it hasn't translated to the NFL very well.

That drop in the endzone by Odunze was one of the enduring images of Chicago's playoff loss, and it could set him back in the WR1 competition when training camp starts.

The Bottom Line

Rome Odunze's career is far from over, and he still has time to turn things around and live up to the expectations of a No. 9 overall pick. But we haven't seen that yet, and the fact that his strength in college has become a weakness in the NFL is doubly concerning. That's what makes Burden's ascendant rookie season so appealing. Burden is already ahead of expectations and ahead of schedule in his development.

D.J. Moore's 85 targets from last season are going to be up for grabs, and I think the bulk of them will go to Burden. His craftiness and ability to break wide open are going to be the key to unlocking Ben Johnson's offense, giving Caleb Williams the kind of weapon that Jared Goff has in Detroit.

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