Assessing Odds That Mara, Lendeborg Fall to Warriors with 11th Pick of NBA Draft

Michigan forward Yaxel Lendeborg has been a draft crush among Golden State Warriors fans for months.

His college teammate has joined him after an excellent NBA combine.

Center Aday Mara has been so impressive that he's not likely to make it to the Warriors' pick at No. 11 of the 2026 draft.

Let's look at the teams picking in front of the Warriors to determine the odds each will be available after the first 10 picks.

Mara Could Be a Target for Several Teams in the Top 10

Mara's measurements and performance in drills have made him arguably the biggest winner of the combine. We all knew he was big, but 7'3" without shoes is massive.

And he looked more comfortable in agility and shooting drills than any 7'3", 260-pound player should.

The 21-year-old shouldn't be a realistic option in the top four, but he will be under consideration starting with the Clippers at five. LA needs to replace Ivica Zubac after trading him to the Pacers, and Mara has a prospect profile that suggests he'll be even better than Zubac.

Of the next five teams in the draft, only the Mavericks have an under-25 center prospect (Dereck Lively II) who would likely steer them in a different direction.

Here is how I would assess the chances each team ahead of the Warriors takes Mara:

5. Clippers: 40 percent

The Clips have a major center void, but they also need a backcourt mate for Darius Garland. Keaton Wagler would make more sense as a player with more long-term potential, but it's easy to make the case that Mara would have the biggest immediate impact. If the Clips convince themselves that they want to make a big playoff push in 2026-27 with Kawhi Leonard still on the roster, Mara could be difficult to pass on.

6. Nets: 33 percent

The Nets have center Nic Claxton under contract for the next two years, but that shouldn't stop them from taking Mara, who has much more potential. But similar to the Clippers with Garland, Egor Demin needs a backcourt partner, so Wagler, Darius Acuff Jr. or Kingston Flemings would make more sense for Brooklyn.

7. Kings: 10 percent

The Kings could trade Domantas Sabonis, so taking Mara is not out of the question. But no team is more in need of a young guard than Sacramento.

8. Hawks: 30 percent

The Hawks have 25-year-old center Onyeka Okongwu under contract for the next two seasons and a big need for offensive pop at the guard positions. But if the Clippers, Nets and Kings take guards ahead of them, Mara might the best player available on their board.

9. Mavericks: 10 percent

Lively and Mara would not be playable together, but it should be noted that Lively is entering the final year of his rookie deal. If the Mavs don't see a long-term future with him, they could take Mara.

10. Bucks: 50 percent

If Mara makes it all the way to No. 10, it feels like the Bucks will have a hard time passing on him. They will inevitably trade Giannis Antetokounmpo and Myles Turner this offseason, so they could take a player at any position, and he'll likely be the best player available.

Mara's odds of falling to 11: 9/1 (10 percent implied odds)

Lendeborg Should Not Be as Coveted

Mara has probably jumped ahead of Lendeborg on most teams' boards due to being two years younger and having a more rare size/skill profile.

Lendeborg's age might be of particular importance to teams picking in the top 10.

Of the teams picking ahead of the Warriors, just two are positioned for immediate contention in the Clippers and Hawks. The other eight should be thinking more about the long term, and that makes a 23-year-old less appealing than most of the other prospects in this range.

5. Clippers: 5 percent

Lendeborg would fill a need next to Kawhi Leonard at the forward spots, but the Clippers have big needs at center and guard too, and they should be thinking about higher-upside players with this pick.

6. Nets: 2 percent

The Nets are at least a couple of years away from serious contention. They'll prioritize a younger prospect with a higher ceiling.

7. Kings: 1 percent

Lendeborg would be duplicative with Keegan Murray already on the roster.

8. Hawks: 15 percent

The Hawks could be looking for immediate impact after making the playoffs, but they are in a decent spot at the forward positions. Jalen Johnson is best-suited as a 4, which would be Lendeborg's best position. Jonathan Kuminga is also best-suited as a 4, and they still have Zaccharie Risacher developing. But don't rule Lendeborg out here, as the Hawks could see him as a better forward option than Kuminga and Risacher.

9. Mavericks: 5 percent

Outside of Cooper Flagg and probably Lively, the Mavericks likely don't have anyone on their roster who will be a key part of their future. That means they could go any direction with this pick, but expect them to take a younger, higher-ceiling prospect who can grow with Flagg.

10. Bucks: 10 percent*

The Bucks are about to enter a long-term rebuild, so they will likely be targeting younger prospects.

*I could see the Thunder trading up from the 12th pick to the 10th pick to take Lendeborg before the Warriors can.

Lendeborg's odds of falling to 11: 1/3 (75 percent implied odds)

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