OKC Thunder Could Benefit from NBA’s Draft Lottery Reform

Weeks ago, ESPN’s Shams Charania gave the latest update on the league’s efforts to curb tanking, the colloquial term for artificially losing games.

Per Charania, after proposing three different ideas months ago, the league is now eyeing a fourth option, one that would raise the number of lottery teams to 16, further flatten the odds and create a “relegation zone” that would punish the league’s worst teams.

The system has been coined the “3-2-1 lottery,” which would divvy out lottery balls worth 2.7%, with teams able to get a minimum of one lottery ball and a maximum of three.

Teams in the reverse four to nine range would receive three balls, or an 8.1% chance at the top pick. The three teams in the relegation zone, as well as the Play-In losers, would receive two balls and a 5.4% chance, and the losers of the 7-8 Play-In game would receive one and a 2.7% chance.

This is a drastic change from the current and former systems, which have largely priorized losing as a way to get better odds.

In reporting on the new system, ESPN’s Tim Bontempts wrote that the expectation is that this will indeed be the new lottery system.

“League officials have told ESPN in recent days that the expectation was this proposal would be the one that is ultimately passed by the league this month.” Botempts wrote.

That’s great news for the Thunder, who are one of a few teams who could benefit from the change.

Oklahoma City has long capatilized on its extended cache of future draft picks, which have been amassed via various trades over the years. They’ve drafed with selections from the Clippers, Knicks and more, typcially in the late-lottery or mid-first range. Even this year, they’ll choose at No. 12 via LA and No. 17 via Philadelphia.

With the change, there’s a great chance that OKC’s odds at the top picks could be raising in the next handfulk of years. With the flattening of the odds, Oklahoma City’s chances at No. 1 this year would raised by about 6%, and that could then extend to the Clippers swap next season, as well as Nuggets and Spurs pick in 2027.

Oklahoma City can swap firsts with Dallas in 2028, and will have the opportunity to grab Denver’s in 2029 as well. Under the new system, those teams will only have to have slightly underwhelming seasons to offer OKC an 8% chance at the No. 1 pick.

It will be just another feather in the Thunder's cap, as they already own the most talent-laden team in the league, and currently standing just eight wins away from repeating as champions.

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