Ranking the NBA Teams That Would Win the 2026 Draft Lottery If It Truly Was ‘Rigged’

The first word that comes to mind for many NBA fanatics when discussing the annual draft lottery is “rigged.”

Over the 40-year history of the draft lottery, there have been a few, uh, coincidences that have served as evidence for the hoops fans who also have a hankering for conspiracy. Just last year, the Mavericks landed the No. 1 pick after trading Luka Dončić to the Lakers, a move that even reportedly raised eyebrows among NBA owners.

Aside from the Flagg pick, there are a few other much-discussed lottery results over the years that we all know and love to debate: LeBron James went to the hometown Cavaliers. Derrick Rose went to the hometown Bulls. The Knicks landed the first pick in 1985 to select Patrick Ewing.

Will we have another NBA conspiracy brewing after the 2026 NBA draft lottery on Sunday?

Disclaimer before we begin: This exercise is just for fun. We don’t believe the lottery is truly rigged. But if the script writers had their way, this is how it would go ...

1. Golden State Warriors

No. 1 pick odds: 2.0%
Top-four pick odds: 9.4%

Steve Kerr is back for another two years on the sidelines in San Francisco, and Steph Curry probably has another two good seasons left in his legs. Since winning the NBA championship in 2022 that cemented Curry’s status as an all-time great, Golden State has won just two playoff series. After losing to the Lakers in the conference semifinals in 2023, the Warriors missed the 2024 playoffs and had to earn their way in last year via the play-in tournament. In 2026, Golden State is on the couch watching the playoffs again.

The Warriors need a big splash this offseason. Landing the No. 1 pick would be a perfect start, whether they draft a future star or use it to send to the Bucks in a potential Giannis Antetokounmpo trade. Hmm ...

2. Miami Heat

No. 1 pick odds: 1.0%
Top-four pick odds: 4.8%

The Heat are desperate for a win. They have been stuck in mediocrity for most of the last decade, often over-performing in the playoffs for a few surprise runs to the Finals. The biggest reason the Heat land high on this conspiracy list, though, is their trade for Terry Rozier back in 2024. Rozier played a total of 95 games for Miami before being placed on leave due to his alleged involvement in illegal gambling rings that all happened while he was in Charlotte. Awarding the No. 1 pick to Miami would be a nice “oops, sorry!” gift from the NBA.

3. Indiana Pacers

No. 1 pick odds: 14%
Top-four pick odds: 52.1%

The Eastern Conference needs some help. While the West boasts playoff matchups between the league’s biggest stars in Victor Wembanyama, Anthony Edwards, LeBron James and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the East hasn’t packed the same punch.

One team that could arise as a monster in the East is the Pacers, who advanced to the Finals last season but struggled in 2025-26 while Tyrese Haliburton recovered from an Achilles injury. Indiana is a basketball-crazed state. Giving Haliburton another star to play with would make Indiana one of the most fun teams to watch in the coming years.

4. Chicago Bulls

No. 1 pick odds: 4.5%
Top-four pick odds: 20.3%

The Bulls have been the unofficial mascots of the play-in tournament since it began in 2020. Constantly stuck between the No. 7 and No. 10 seeds in the East, the Bulls need a reset—and have one coming after firing executives Arturas Karnisovas and Marc Eversley. What better way to start the Bryson Graham era than giving him the No. 1 pick?

5. Milwaukee Bucks

No. 1 pick odds: 0%*
Top-four pick odds: 13.9%

The Bucks can’t actually win the No. 1 pick because they own the worst of their pick and the Hornets’ draft position due to the Jrue Holiday trade. (The Hawks now own the right to swap). So the best-case scenario for Milwaukee is the Bucks or Pelicans winning the draft lottery, and the other team getting the No. 2 pick. The chances of the Bucks actually ending up with a top-four pick is 3.1%.

If it happens, that’d be a huge step forward for a franchise not sure of its next move with Antetokounmpo ...

6. Dallas Mavericks

No. 1 pick odds: 6.7%
Top-four pick odds: 29%

Winning the Cooper Flagg draft lottery kept the Mavs off life support last year following the shocking Dončić trade. But after struggling to a 26–56 record, Flagg needs more help if he’s going to develop into one of the faces of the league. And what better way to get him some help than back-to-back No. 1 picks?

7. New Orleans Pelicans (pick owned by Atlanta Hawks)

No. 1 pick odds: 6.8%
Top-four pick odds: 29.3%

The post-Trae Young era is off to a great start in Atlanta—even after falling to the Knicks in the first round of the playoffs. Winning this year’s lottery would make the Pelicans’ Derik Queen trade look ... pretty rough.

8. Memphis Grizzlies

No. 1 pick odds: 9%
Top-four pick odds: 37.2%

The vibes aren’t great in Memphis. At least one notable star is requesting the franchise moves to Nashville, and the Grizzlies traded away their core that looked oh-so-promising just a few years ago. A new face of the franchise is needed in Memphis.

9. Brooklyn Nets

No. 1 pick odds: 14%
Top-four pick odds: 52.1%

Speaking of franchises that need some sort of a direction, meet the Nets. The Barclays Center is always lively for the WNBA’s New York Liberty games but hasn’t had much to root for since the Deron Williams era.

10. Utah Jazz

No. 1 pick odds: 11.5%
Top-four pick odds: 45.2%

The Jazz winning the lottery wouldn’t raise any eyebrows. But perhaps that’s exactly what the NBA wants ... (we kid).

11. Charlotte Hornets

No. 1 pick odds: 0.5%
Top-four pick odds: 2.4%

The Hornets are well on their way to an exciting new chapter after posting 44 wins this season, their most since 2015-16. Awarding the No. 1 pick to Charlotte would align with the NBA’s incoming anti-tanking measures.

12. Washington Wizards

No. 1 pick odds: 14%
Top-four pick odds: 52.1%

If the Wizards win the lottery and your friend believes it’s rigged, check on your friend.

13. Los Angeles Clippers (pick owned by Oklahoma City Thunder)

No. 1 pick odds: 1.5%
Top-four pick odds: 7.1%

The defending champion Thunder are a perfect 7–0 in the playoffs this year despite one of their best players Jalen Williams not available to play since the opening round. If the basketball gods care at all about parity around the league, they will keep the Thunder far away from the No. 1 pick.

14. Sacramento Kings

No. 1 pick odds: 11.5%
Top-four pick odds: 45.2%

There is no fan base more deserving of the No. 1 pick than those loyal fans in Sacramento. But time and time again, the franchise shoots itself in the foot with ill-advised moves and hasn’t gotten much help over the years in the NBA lottery. Sorry, Kings fans. If the script writers have their way, the beam likely stays unlit atop Golden 1 Center.

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