The NBA Draft Lottery Could Change the Indiana Pacers Franchise Forever

Sunday afternoon could become one of the most important days in Indiana Pacers franchise history. The NBA Draft Lottery will take place at 3:00 PM EST in Chicago and air live on ABC, revealing the official order for the 2026 NBA Draft.

Indiana guard T.J. McConnell will represent the Pacers on stage during the televised reveal, while assistant general manager Ted Wu will be inside the private drawing room where the actual lottery drawings take place moments beforehand.

What’s at Stake?

The Pacers made one of the boldest moves of the season on February 5 when they acquired Ivica Zubac and Kobe Brown from the Los Angeles Clippers. In return, Indiana sent out Bennedict Mathurin, Isaiah Jackson, a 2029 unprotected first-round pick, and a 2026 top-four protected first-round selection.

If the Pacers retain their 2026 first-round pick in the lottery, the Clippers will instead receive Indiana’s unprotected 2031 first-round pick.

The move allowed Indiana to address its glaring need at center after losing Myles Turner in free agency, while simultaneously ensuring the franchise-worst season still carried significant meaning. Despite the losses piling up, the Pacers positioned themselves for a chance to walk away with one of the premier talents in what many consider one of the deepest draft classes in years.

The Odds and How the Lottery Works

The odds are slightly in Indiana’s favor. The Pacers enter lottery night with a 52.1% chance of keeping their pick and a 47.9% chance of losing it altogether.

Here are Indiana’s odds for each draft slot:

No. 1 pick — 14%
No. 2 pick — 13.41%
No. 3 pick — 12.74%
No. 4 pick — 11.96%
No. 5 pick — 27.84%
No. 6 pick — 20.06%

The Pacers possess 140 four-digit combinations out of a possible 1,001 combinations. Fourteen ping-pong balls will be loaded into the lottery machine, and one ball will be drawn every 10 seconds until four numbers are selected. The team assigned to the matching four-digit combination will receive the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft.

That process will then repeat three additional times to determine the top four selections. Once those four teams are finalized, the remaining lottery teams will fall into place based on inverse order of the standings.

Scenarios if the Pacers Keep Their Pick

If Indiana wins the lottery and lands the No. 1 overall selection, most evaluators believe AJ Dybantsa would be the choice. The 6-foot-9 wing possesses elite scoring ability, star upside, and the type of “face of the franchise” potential teams dream about building around.

If the Pacers land at No. 2, No. 3, or No. 4, the likely options become Darryn Peterson of University of Kansas, Cameron Boozer of Duke University, and Caleb Wilson of University of North Carolina.

Each prospect brings a vastly different skill set. Peterson is viewed as one of the most dynamic guard prospects in recent memory because of his scoring instincts and elite off-ball movement. Boozer is regarded as one of the most polished all-around prospects for his age that scouts have seen in years. Wilson offers a fascinating blend of elite athleticism, defensive versatility, competitiveness, and long-term upside.

The rankings between those three players will continue shifting over the next month and a half, but it would be surprising to see another prospect force their way into that top-four tier. That elite group of talent is exactly why Indiana protected its pick in the first place.

History of Indiana’s Top-Four Picks

First Overall Pick

If the Pacers land the No. 1 overall selection, it would technically mark the second time in franchise history they controlled the top pick. Back in 1978, Indiana owned the No. 1 pick but traded it to the Portland Trail Blazers in a financial-driven move for Johnny Davis and the No. 3 overall pick.

Second Overall Pick

The Pacers have selected second overall three times in franchise history: 1983, 1985, and 1988. Those selections became Steve Stipanovich, Wayman Tisdale, and franchise cornerstone Rik Smits. Both Stipanovich and Smits earned All-Rookie honors.

Third Overall Pick

Indiana has only owned the No. 3 overall selection once, and it came from the previously mentioned trade with Portland involving the No. 1 pick.

Fourth Overall Pick

The Pacers have only drafted fourth overall once as well, selecting Chuck Person out of Auburn University 40 years ago. “The Rifleman” went on to win Rookie of the Year during the 1986-87 season.

Final Thoughts

Whether Indiana keeps or loses its pick, the roster should still be competitive enough to contend in the Eastern Conference and make another run at the NBA Finals. But from a long-term perspective, retaining a top-four pick could completely alter the trajectory of the franchise for the next decade.

That’s what makes Sunday such a monumental moment in Pacers history, and why fans across Indiana should be glued to their televisions Sunday afternoon.

You can follow me on X @AlexGoldenNBA and listen to my daily podcast, Setting The Pace, wherever you get your podcasts.

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