Breaking Down the Utah Jazz's Worst Possible Lottery Outcome

The Utah Jazz are right on the cusp of learning where they'll be selecting in this year's draft with the lottery officially on the horizon for Sunday afternoon.

Heading into the weekend, the Jazz are sitting in a pretty solid position to end up with a high draft pick on the board. They've got a 11.5% chance to secure the number one selection, and over a 45% chance to retain a top four spot, which would be their highest selection since 2011.

But what if things don't fall in the Jazz's favor upon the big reveal? What's the worst-possible outcome fans should be aware of if Utah's lottery misfortune continues for a third-straight go-around?

It's improbable, but it's certainly not too pretty.

Utah's Worst-Case Scenario in NBA Lottery

The Jazz have a range of possible selections from one to eight on the board, and sit tied with the fourth-best odds of any team in the mix.

Of course, the worst-case scenario would rely on the Jazz dropping all the way down to eight––a whopping four spots below where they're projected headed into the weekend–– and would be a huge hit to their aspirations of landing one of the top prospects on the board.

The odds of that happening sit at a slim 2.4% chance of occurring, which is the lowest of any of their eight possible outcomes, and does tend to bode well for the Jazz's chances of leaping higher than that placement.

But that doesn't mean it's impossible.

For that eighth pick to become the Jazz's reality, it relies on four teams sitting below the Jazz jumping above them into the top four, and also uprooting the top four projected picks from that range as well.

That means if any four-team combination between the fifth-best Sacramento Kings and the 14th-best Charlotte Hornets can luck into the top-four spots, the Jazz will be picking at eight.

It's a highly improbable scenario, and would mean that not just the Jazz, but the top three teams ahead of them also face their worst-case scenario of falling four spots below their projection. So best believe that none of these top four teams are hoping to see this become a reality.

The Silver Lining of It All

The Jazz are always prone to fall victim to lottery misfortune, as has been proven throughout their franchise history. But no matter what transpires for Utah on Sunday, the most important factor to note is that they'll be picking in the first round, no matter what happens.

Throughout the entire regular season, much conversation and concern surrounded the Jazz's first-round pick, and the chances of whether they would retain it at all, as it would be top-eight protected in the hands of the OKC Thunder.

Especially before a brutal second half to Utah's season where early wins were gradually piling up, there was real doubt developing around the Jazz's chances to get 100% odds of keeping their top pick.

Fast forward to today, and the Jazz did what they must to silence that chatter, keep that pick out of OKC's possession, and will get to add another puzzle piece to the future of this budding roster.

Even if the Jazz are picking eighth, that's sure better than not having a pick at all. So no matter where Utah ends up after the lottery balls are drawn, they can walk into this year's draft feeling positive about what's ahead.

The Jazz will learn their fate in this year's lottery at 1 p.m. MT on Sunday afternoon, hoping to make a move up the board with their own pick for the first time in franchise history.

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