Narrowing Down Potential Boston Celtics Free Agent, Trade Targets, and Strategies

Some very smart people in the Boston Celtics front office are putting a plan together for the offseason, and if there's one hallmark of the Brad Stevens era, it’s that people like me can never figure out what they're actually planning.

It’s like I’m Eleanor Shellstrop from The Good Place walking into Michael’s office and him saying “oh, I forgot, you don’t see in nine dimensions.”

Still, it’s worth the shot to figure out who the Celtics might be looking at. So let’s dive into it, shall we?

As a reminder…

Boston’s salary situation:

Tax Line: $201 million
First Apron: $209 million
Second Apron: $222 million

Fully Guaranteed:
Jayson Tatum $58,456,566
Jaylen Brown $57,078,728
Derrick White $30,348,000
Sam Hauser $10,848,215
Payton Pritchard $7,767,857
Hugo Gonzalez $2,923,560
Luka Garza $2,801,346
Total $170,224,272

Team Options:
Baylor Scheierman $2,744,040
Neemias Queta $2,667,944
Jordan Walsh $2,406,205
Amari Williams $2,150,917
Max Shulga $2,150,917
Ron Harper Jr. $2,584,539
Dalano Banton $2,801,346
Total: $17,505,908

Throw in the 27th overall pick’s guaranteed rookie scale and throw out Nikola Vucevic’s money, and Boston is at $190,727,540, which is $10,272,460 short of the tax line and $18,272,460 below the first apron.

Let’s start sorting these guys into categories, trying to figure out who might stay and go.

Categories of players

Keeping: Tatum, Brown

Despite all the noise, Stevens made it pretty clear that they're not going to mess with something that works. Even IF Brown is frustrated, they're better off fixing anything that might need fixing right now. If it’s not working for some reason, then the trade deadline will get interesting, but there's nothing rising to the level of untenable right now.

Probably keeping but could move in the right deal: White, Pritchard, Gonzalez

White is right on the cusp of untouchable because of all the important things he does defensively and what he’s capable of offensively. However, he turns 32 this summer and is due almost $92 million over the next three seasons. He’s good enough to still be desirable for every good team and he makes enough money to help match a big contract.

Pritchard is a great value, so it has to be “the right deal.” He’s also a good number for salary-matching purposes. For example: White, Pritchard, and Hauser work financially to match Giannis Antetokounmpo. I’m not saying that's an acceptable offer, but it’s a legal offer, so Pritchard needs to be at least in the theoretical discussion.

And I’m obviously very high on Gonzalez, but a win-now move with a team looking to rebuild might require Gonzalez because he (20 years old) and Walsh (22) are truly the only young talent on the Celtics roster. Everyone else of any proven value is 25 or older.

Keeping as cheap supporting talent (but could become valuable salary filler): Scheierman, Queta, Walsh, Garza

I expect all these guys back, but depending on how things go, none is so valuable that he can’t be included if salary is needed. They're also more than “filler” in a trade, so they would be valuable enough to maybe save on another asset somewhere else (like keeping a draft pick that would otherwise be traded).

Tax casualty: Hauser

The first hint of this situation came when Scheierman was drafted and people wondered if he’d be a Hauser replacement. I think he’s finally played himself into that.

Hauser’s $10.8 million is a great amount to send out and keep the C’s under the tax line while building their team.

Remember, this has nothing to do with saving Bill Chisholm money. This is about resetting the repeater tax and making the money go further the next few seasons. Some people don’t want to hear that, but it’s a real part of team-building and so it has to be considered.

Declining team options: Banton, Williams, Shulga

As I’ve written before, I expect Williams and Shulga back on two-way deals and Banton to not return.

Question mark: Ron Harper Jr.

This plan opens up four roster spots, so Harper could be someone to keep for cheap depth. He has had some big moments for Boston and he’s earned a bigger shot.

At the same time, he isn’t indispensable. Banton had the same big moments for the Blazers when the Celtics let him go the first time around, and yet here he is fighting for a spot again. Harper Jr. is a good player, so I’d like to see him stay. There are better players out there, though, so depending on how things go, they could move him or let him go.

I’m not going to rule out some other kind of kicking the can down the road. Either they can extend his team option deadline or they can decline it and sign him to a partially guaranteed deal to give him a chance to fight for a roster spot in camp.

Supporting cast free agents

De’Anthony Melton (28 years old, G, 6’2”)

A small-guard with a big wing span, Melton has a player option and will be looking for a raise from his $3.4 million. His three-point shooting cratered this season (29.4%) but his previous five seasons were between 36-41%. The height is an issue, but he’s a good 3-and-D option.

Sandro Mamukelashvili (27 years old, F/C, 6’9”)

He’s coming off his best season, and is a good stretch-big option. He’s not the best rim-protector in the world, but he can spread the floor in small-ball lineups as the five or big lineups as the four.

Nick Richards (28 years old, C/F, 6’11”)

He’s exploring the studio space beyond the arc, but he’s mainly an athletic rim-runner. Going with him would give Boston a more consistent feel at the center spot. Signing him would also signal that Boston is going with Queta as the starter.

Jock Landale (30 years old, C, 6’11”)

Who doesn’t love a hustling, bruising, three-point shooting big from Australia? He’d be a good energy boost who plays with some physicality. He’d be a Garza replacement if signed.

Potential big-impact free agents

Mitchell Robinson (28 years old, C, 7’)

We know him well and I’m not sure the Knicks would let him walk, but he’ll be somewhere in Boston’s price range. He’s a game-changing offensive rebounder, vertical spacer, and rim protector. He’s as non-shooter as non-shooters get, but Boston has a way of maximizing centers and I wonder what that means for Robinson. Also, I want to see how Joe Mazzulla handles Robinson’s free throws.

Coby White (26 years old, G, 6’4”)

He might be a candidate for Boston to throw a little extra money at in a sign-and-trade using the $27.7 million TPE. Sending Hauser to Charlotte in a deal where White gets more than the mid-level (thinking $17 million instead of $15 million) could be a win-win for everyone. Boston gets a more dynamic scorer and high-energy guy off the bench, while the cost-conscious Hornets get a cheaper spot-up guy who could feast playing off LaMelo Ball and Kon Knueppel.

Anfernee Simons (27 years old, G, 6’3”)

We know what he can bring offensively. He made some strides defensively, too. He’d probably take up most of, if not all of, the full mid-level.

Kelly Oubre Jr. (30 years old, F, 6’8”)

He’s turned himself into a very nice 3-and-D wing off the bench, and we know full well how much of an irritant he is. The C’s need someone to be a tick … get under other people’s skin and make them uncomfortable.

Team option to watch for

Micah Potter (28 years old, C/F, 6’9”)

I’m assuming the Pacers keep him. He shot 42.3% from three and was a nice backup for the Pacers, so $2.1 million feels like a no-brainer to keep around. But teams make strange decisions sometimes so I’d be ready to pounce if they screw this up.

Under-the-radar trade targets

Santi Aldama (25 years old, C/F, 7’)

I’ve been on the Aldama train for a little while. He’s a legitimate seven-footer with good offensive instincts that can probably be developed into much more than he is at the moment, including bumping up his three-point percentage and improving his rebounding. Also, having another Spanish player around to help make things more comfortable for Hugo Gonzalez isn’t a bad idea.

Bobby Portis (31 years old, F/C, 6’9”)

The Celtics can use a guy with Portis’ intensity. He’s a proven veteran who could help in small-ball lineups or as a spacer next to Queta or another rim-running center. He’s an agitator who can hit threes. I think he’d get along great with Mazzulla.

Goga Bitadze (27 years old, C, 6’11”)

Orlando needs shooting, Boston needs size. If Boston can pull off one of their other deals to add a perimeter player, Bitadze as a backup to Queta could work. Bonus: He fits into the $8.2 million Georges Niang TPE, so Boston could acquire him using that and still have one of their other exceptions to go fishing for someone bigger.

One fun series of moves could be: Bitadze into the $8.2 million TPE, using the $15 million of the $27.7 million Simons TPE to sign-and-trade for someone at mid-level money, and then saving their MLE for post-trade deadline in case any good buyout guys come along and they want to out-bid teams who can only offer minimums or the smaller taxpayer MLE.

Reclamation project trade target

Cam Johnson (30 years old, F, 6’8”)

It didn’t work well in Denver and the Nuggets are a super expensive team that needs to sign other free agents. They might just give Johnson away and his $23 million fits into the TPE. He’s good on both sides of the ball and playing off dynamic wings with hard-rolling centers could put him back in Brooklyn Nets mode. The plus side is that this is his final season at $23 million, so he can sign a more reasonable contract next season with the Celtics if things work out well and he wants to stay. On the negative side, it’s a lot of money to absorb, even if they send Hauser out somewhere to make up for some of the difference. If Boston is trying to stay under the tax, this move could limit what they spend on another supporting player.

Big game hunting

I don’t really need to go through all these names again, do I? I just don’t think they're in on Giannis Antetokounmpo. Devin Booker potentially becoming available doesn’t move me right now. Neither does Donovan Mitchell if the Cavs blow this series to the Pistons.

The Celtics aren’t at the stage where they blow up their core just yet, so I’m not giving this part much credence at all. Maybe I’m wrong and they’ll surprise us, but I think some of these other moves are much more likely.

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