Sixers' Latest Playoff Run Is the Joel Embiid Dilemma in a Nutshell

More than a decade into his NBA career, the Sixers still aren't sure whether Joel Embiid is able to hold up physically for a deep playoff run.

Even before Embiid needed a surprise appendectomy in the final few days of the regular season this year, he was already among the biggest what-if players in NBA history.

Embiid somehow managed to return from said appendectomy ahead of Game 4 of the Sixers' first-round series against the Boston Celtics. He then helped the Sixers mount a furious rally and overcome a 3-1 series deficit for the first time in franchise history.

After Game 7, Celtics head coach Joe Mazzulla pointed to Embiid's return as the turning point in the series.

What did it cost? Everything.

The Embiid dilemma

Embiid was listed as probable for Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals against the New York Knicks with a right hip contusion. He played through the injury, but he moved about as well as a 1994 Oldsmobile.

Embiid was again listed as probable for Game 2, although this time, he was listed with a right ankle sprain. However, the Sixers ruled him out at 1 p.m. ET on game day due to both hip and ankle injuries.

With Embiid sidelined, the Sixers jumped out to an early lead and held it for most of the game, but they ran out of gas in the fourth quarter and lost 108-102. They cycled through three centers, but Knicks center Karl-Anthony Towns had his way with Andre Drummond and Adem Bona, getting them both into quick foul trouble.

Embiid returned two days later for Game 3, although it quickly became obvious how limited he was on both ends of the floor. The Knicks again made a point of targeting him defensively, and he wasn't nearly as automatic from the mid-range as he typically is.

Therein lies the Sixers' Joel Embiid dilemma in a nutshell.

Despite what some have suggested recently, the Sixers are a much better team with a healthy Embiid than they are without him. "With a healthy Embiid" is a major caveat, though. It always has been.

Can the Sixers count on Embiid when it matters?

In 2022-23, Embiid won MVP. He averaged a career-high 33.1 points per game and led the league in scoring for the second straight season.

In the three years since, he's played in 96 of a possible 246 regular-season games.

Embiid was on pace for a back-to-back MVP campaign in 2023-24 before he tore his meniscus in late January. His return from that injury proved more complicated than expected, which effectively tanked his entire 2024-25 season.

Heading into this season, expectations were fairly low for Embiid given his pedigree. After seeing how the 2024-25 campaign unfolded, most fans would have just settled for seeing him make it through the season healthy. He effectively split the difference.

Embiid played only 38 games during the regular season due to a right oblique injury, a shin injury and "injury management" of both of his knees. However, he looked more like the Joel Embiid of old than anyone expected, as he averaged 26.9 points on 48.9% shooting.

Embiid was undeniably rusty upon his return from his appendectomy in the playoffs, but he helped close out the Celtics with 34 points, 12 rebounds and six assists in Game 7 on the road. However, he took two major shots to his knees in that game, and he hasn't been moving well ever since.

The Sixers are now in a 3-0 series hole that no team in NBA history has ever overcome. Twelve years into his NBA career, Embiid still has yet to advance past the Eastern Conference Semifinals. It's fair to wonder if it'll ever happen at this point.

When healthy, Embiid often raises the Sixers into the championship conversation. He's just never made it through a playoff run healthy, and there's no reason to expect that to change as he gets further into his 30s.

What's the alternative?

The problem is that other NBA teams also have eyes and spreadsheets.

Embiid is just about to begin a three-year max extension that's projected to be worth more than $185 million. Most teams around the league are tightening their spending in the second-apron era, which means the Sixers very well might have to attach additional assets just to convince another team to take on Embiid's contract.

That's the last thing they should be doing as they look ahead to the post-Embiid future built around Tyrese Maxey and VJ Edgecombe. Besides, they wouldn't have financial flexibility this offseason unless they also offloaded Paul George.

The path of least resistance would be to run back Embiid, George, Maxey and Edgecombe next year and better construct the supporting cast around them. The Sixers' front office has found a handful of gems in the past few years, and it'll have another chance to do so with the No. 22 overall pick in this year's draft courtesy of the Jared McCain trade.

If Embiid somehow manages to stay healthy for an entire playoff run, the Sixers still could at least make the Eastern Conference Finals for the first time in more than a quarter-century. It's hard to imagine them catching up to the Oklahoma City Thunder or San Antonio Spurs anytime soon, although it's hard to imagine any team catching up to either of them soon barring a massive stroke of luck.

Maxey is currently nursing a finger injury that's impeding him, but the Sixers' series against the New York Knicks is also exposing his limitations as a No. 1 option. He went from an explosive second quarter in Game 2 to a relatively muted six quarters immediately thereafter. Maxey said he jammed his finger after Game 2, which limited his ability to break through traps, but the Knicks also seem to be psyching him out of being aggressive.

Once Embiid and George get closer to the end of their contracts, the Sixers might seriously begin exploring how to pivot from them. But this offseason, given how much they'd likely have to pay in addition to offload either one, the Sixers figure to take one more year gambling on the minuscule chance that he stays healthy for an entire playoff run.

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Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Spotrac and salary-cap information via RealGM.

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