Phillies Top Prospect Can Unlock Full Potential With One Adjustment

Philadelphia Phillies pitcher Andrew Painter, 23, has struggled to begin his MLB career. Overall this season, Painter is 1-4 with a 6.89 ERA at the back end of a Phillies' rotation that features Zack Wheeler, Cristopher Sánchez, Jesús Luzardo and Aaron Nola.

While he’s shown bits and pieces of the potential and upside he brings, it’s clear that there are adjustments he needs to make to be successful at the Big League level.

His first seven appearances in the Majors have exposed what the Phillies’ No. 2 prospect needs to work on to improve as a pitcher.

The primary issue that stands out for Painter is that he needs to improve his fastball.

Andrew Painter is struggling with his fastball this season

In his previous outing specifically for Philadelphia, Painter surrendered eight runs on seven hits in 3.2 innings against the Athletics on Thursday. He gave up three home runs, all of which came on two-strike fastballs.

Overall, this season, Painter’s fastball has been hit hard. Batters are hitting .373 (22-for-59) with a .576 slugging percentage against his four-seam fastball, along with three home runs, three doubles and just four strikeouts.

Hitters have an average exit velocity of 89.8 mph against the fastball, with a whiff rate of just 8.7%, the lowest among his six pitches.

Painter’s fastball has generated only 15 whiffs on 160 swings, including just three on 23 swings Thursday. Entering Thursday, his 9.4% whiff rate on both four-seam and two-seam fastballs ranks 118th out of 124 pitchers (minimum 100 swings).

Painter has thrown his fastball 38% of the time this season, more than double his second-most used pitch, his slider, at 17.6%.

Speaking about the three home runs that all came off inside fastballs in his previous outing, Painter explained the approach behind the pitch sequencing.

“I think that was part of the setup,” Painter said. “I think the approach there was, everything hard was in and everything soft was away. So I would imagine an approach there was -- [if] they saw it in, they thought it was a fastball. If they saw it away, they figured it was spinning or they were taking it.”

Painter’s fastball shows below-average movement compared to pitchers with similar speed and release points, as his four-seam fastball averages -0.7 fewer inches of vertical break and -3.2 fewer inches of horizontal break.

Painter is aware that while he’s been tweaking things and making small adjustments over his past few outings, the results are not there yet.

“Like I said, it’s probably the process and the setup,” Painter said. “I think probably moving in and out a little more. I think throwing the four[-seam] outside will help that.”

If Painter wants to reach the level the Phillies believe he’s capable of, improving the effectiveness of his fastball will be key. The talent and pitch mix are still evident, but until he’s able to create more deception and avoid getting hit hard in fastball counts, opposing hitters will continue to take advantage.

Refining his fastball could be the adjustment Painter needs to become an effective Major League starter.

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