USC's Projected Bowl Matchup Could Spell Trouble for Lincoln Riley

After falling to the TCU Horned Frogs in the Alamo Bowl last season, finishing 9-4, the USC Trojans are looking to take a step forward in their fifth year under coach Lincoln Riley.

The 2026 season is considered make-or-break for Riley, as Trojan fans are desperate for USC to reach the College Football Playoff after coming up short last year. Since the CFP began in 2015, USC has remained one of the most storied programs in college football that has yet to make an appearance in the playoff, even with the expanded 12-team format and possibility of more teams added in the future.

USC Trojans College Football Big Ten Lincoln Riley Jayden Maiava quarterback Gary Patterson defensive coordinator Las Vegas — Nov 7, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley watches game action against the Northwestern Wildcats during the second half at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images | Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

USC has high expectations that with the return of star quarterback Jayden Maiava and the arrival of new defensive coordinator Gary Patterson, they'll make the CFP. However, according to On3's latest post-spring bowl projections, Trojan fans will be disappointed yet again.

USC Fans Won't Like Projected Postseason Result

USC Trojans Michigan Wolverines College Football Big Ten Lincoln Riley Jayden Maiava Bryce Underwood quarterback Texas A&M — Oct 11, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; Michigan Wolverines running back Jordan Marshall (23) is stopped by USC Trojans defensive tackle Keeshawn Silver (9) at the 7-yard line in the first half at United Airlines Field at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images | Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

The Trojans are projected to play the Michigan Wolverines in a Big Ten clash at the Las Vegas Bowl next season in On3's Brett McMurphy's prediction. After beating the Wolverines 31-13 at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum last season, the Trojans don’t face Michigan on their 2026 schedule.

If this prediction came true, it would be the Trojans' second appearance in the Las Vegas Bowl in the last three seasons, as they beat the Texas A&M Aggies 35-31 in 2024. This projection should not excite fans as it would be yet another season in which the Trojans fail to meet expectations and fall short of their CFP aspirations.

Four Big Ten teams are projected to make the CFP in 2026, including the defending national champions, the Indiana Hoosiers, the Ohio State Buckeyes, the Oregon Ducks, and the Penn State Nittany Lions under the leadership of new coach Matt Campbell.

Why Missing Playoff Could Signal Trouble for Lincoln Riley

USC Trojans College Football Big Ten Lincoln Riley 2026 season Michigan Wolverines transfer portal additions top 25 opponents — Nov 29, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans quarterback Jayden Maiava (14) and head coach Lincoln Riley react after the game against the UCLA Bruins at United Airlines Field at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

All four of those opponents are on the Trojans' 2026 season schedule. This likely means that USC takes a step back and finishes the regular season. Regardless of the fashion, if the Trojans lose those four games and the result in their projected bowl matchup against Michigan, Riley’s future with USC could likely be in jeopardy.

During his four seasons as coach for the Trojans, Riley has struggled to win on the road and against top-25 opponents. Entering the 2026 season, Riley has a 6-13 record against top-25 opponents and will get even worse if the Trojans' projection comes true.

While USC has seen a massive boost in recruiting trail success, it's time for the Trojans to take the next step, as Riley recently said the team’s championship window is open. Only time will tell if that ends up the case, and the Trojans' result next season will be a true indication.

Not only does USC enter this upcoming season with top returners and transfer portal additions on both sides of the football, but the No. 1-ranked 2026 recruiting class is set to arrive in Los Angeles. Trojan fans are hopeful that these three factors will help them reach the CFP.

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