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UNC's Receives Jarring Preseason Projection

Here is a look at where the Tar Heels ranked in a way-too early preseason projection.
Logan Lazarczyk|
Apr 3, 2017; Phoenix, AZ, USA; View of the team logos in a hallway after the game between the Gonzaga Bulldogs and the North Carolina Tar Heels in the championship game of the 2017 NCAA Men's Final Four at University of Phoenix Stadium. North Carolina defeated Gonzaga 71-65. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-Imagn Images
Apr 3, 2017; Phoenix, AZ, USA; View of the team logos in a hallway after the game between the Gonzaga Bulldogs and the North Carolina Tar Heels in the championship game of the 2017 NCAA Men's Final Four at University of Phoenix Stadium. North Carolina defeated Gonzaga 71-65. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-Imagn Images | Joe Camporeale-Imagn Images

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North Carolina Tar Heels

Hiring Michael Malone as the head coach was - while nothing has been proven - an excellent move by the North Carolina Tar Heels, who can now say they have a legitimate leader on the sidelines. However, the timing of the hire put the program behind the eight-ball in terms of recruitment.

With a plethora of outgoing players, who all seemed to leave simultaneously, the Tar Heels were still navigating the hiring process. Malone was formally introduced as the head coach on April 7, the same day that the transfer portal window officially opened.

Mar 10, 2026; Kansas City, MO, USA; Utah Utes guard Terrence Brown (2) drives around Cincinnati Bearcats guard Day Day Thomas (1) during the second half at T-Mobile Center. Mandatory Credit: William Purnell-Imagn Images | William Purnell-Imagn Images

While Malone and his staff were able to assemble a transfer class headlined by Neoklis Avdalas and Terrence Brown, it is still apparent that the 54-year-old head coach has more work to do to solidify the roster.

That was evident in college basketball analyst Andy Katz's top-76 team rankings, which he released on Friday after the NCAA approved the expansion of the tournament’s field to 76 spots. Here is where Katz had North Carolina in the early projections.

The Tar Heels Rank No. 33

Mar 24, 2025; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Nuggets head coach Michael Malone gestures in the third quarter against the Chicago Bulls at Ball Arena. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images | Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images

In this exercise, North Carolina found themselves near the epicenter, falling behind teams you would not expect a program of this stature to be. The Tar Heels find themselves in a group including Baylor, Providence, Texas A&M, Iowa, St. Louis, BYU, and UCLA, among others.

With all due respect to those programs, and quite a few that have accomplished more than North Carolina over the last two years, the Tar Heels have the resources to be exponentially higher on this list. That said, as currently constituted, Katz's location of them is pretty accurate.

What This Means

Mar 19, 2026; Greenville, SC, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels forward Jarin Stevenson (15) celebrates after a play against the VCU Rams in the second half of a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Bon Secours Wellness Arena. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

While North Carolina should expect great things with Malone at the helm, this accurately depicts the current state of the Tar Heels' basketball program. I expect North Carolina will exceed recent projections, including this one, but Tar Heel fans need to have realistic expectations for the upcoming season.

There are some intriguing pieces on this roster who could develop into elite players under Malone, but that still remains to be seen. Until proven otherwise, North Carolina will remain assessed as a teetering eight- or nine-seed in next year's tournament.

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Mar 12, 2026; Charlotte, NC, USA; NC State Wolfpack guard Matt Able (3) and Virginia Cavaliers forward Devin Tillis (11) fight for the ball in the first half at Spectrum Center. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

Again, I believe they will end up near the five, six, or seven range because of the clear upgrade at coaching, but the talent has taken a step back from last season. At the same time, I view this team as more versatile and malleable than last season, and North Carolina will be able to win games in multiple fashions.

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Logan Lazarczyk
LOGAN LAZARCZYK

Logan Lazarczyk is a graduate of the University of Missouri-Kansas City, where he earned a Bachelor of Arts in Communication Studies with an emphasis in Journalism. Logan joined our team with extensive experience, having previously written and worked for media entities such as USA Today and Union Broadcasting.