Best and Worst Case Scenarios for Oregon, Dan Lanning Next Season

The Oregon Ducks enter the 2026 college football as one of the favorites to win the national championship. Here are the best and worst cases scenarios for coach Dan Lanning and his Ducks this season. 

Best Case: National Championship

The best case for Oregon this season is clear. It would be finally getting over the hump and winning the program’s first national championship in school history. 

According to DraftKings Sportsbook, the Ducks have the fifth best odds to win the national title at +800. There four teams in front of them are the Ohio State Buckeyes, Notre Dame Fighting Irish, Indiana Hoosiers, and Texas Longhorns. 

Oregon is coming off back-to-back seasons in which they made it to the College Football Playoff. Here are just a couple of the keys for Oregon to take the next step forward to winning a title.

Dante Moore Picks Up Where He Left Off 

Dante Moore started all 15 games for the Ducks last season, leading them to a a 13-2 overall record. Moore threw for 3,565 yards and 30 touchdowns. Moore was named Third-team All-Big Ten. He was projected to be one of the top picks in the 2026 NFL Draft, but decided to return to Eugene for another season. That’s good news for Ducks fans. 

Oregon won’t have any quarterback questions heading into the year and have a guy that has shown an ability to thrive at this level. The key will be keeping him protected and healthy for the whole season. If Moore can play at the level the played at last season and possibly even get a little bit better, there’s no question he can be the quarterback to lead this team to a title. 

Correct Coordinators Hired

A massive factor for Oregon this season is how their new offensive and defensive coordinators will fare. Oregon’s offensive coordinator (Will Stein) and defensive coordinator (Tosh Lupoi) from last season each accepted head coaching jobs this offseason. Oregon replaced them with in-house hires. 

Offensive coordinator Drew Mehringer was the co-offensive coordinator and tight ends coach before being promoted. Defensive coordinator Chris Hampton was promoted from co-defensive coordinator. Both Mehringer and Hampton have been on Lanning’s Oregon staff since 2022 and now will take the their biggest roles since coming to Eugene. 

A seamless transition will be needed for Oregon to win a national title. 

Worst Case: Missing College Football Playoff 

There worst case scenario for Oregon is coming up short of the playoff. This team is loaded with talent and they should be able to get back to the playoff for the third consecutive year. With the 12-team playoff, 10 wins should be enough for a Big Ten team like Oregon to get in, but it is not a guarantee. 

If Oregon loses three games with a non-conference schedule that on paper, doesn’t look very daunting, they could be in a lot of trouble. Heading into the year, Oregon’s three most difficult games appear to be at USC, at Ohio State, and vs. Michigan.

If those factors listed in their best case scenario don’t come true such as Moore taking a step back and the two new coordinators struggling in year one, losing these three games isn’t out of the realm of possibility. Losing those three games could end their playoff chances completely, resulting in a disappointing season. 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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