What NCAA Tournament Expansion Means for NC State and Justin Gainey

RALEIGH — NC State men's basketball has a storied history when it comes to the NCAA Tournament. The program hoisted two national championship trophies (1974 and 1983) and played in the Final Four in 2024, reigniting some of the interest in the program that waned during the 2000s and 2010s. As the Wolfpack goes through a coaching change, the Big Dance is changing too.

News broke that the NCAA Tournament will expand to 76 teams beginning in 2027 for both men's and women's basketball. The Wolfpack hired Justin Gainey to be the next leader of its men's basketball program after a First Four exit and the sudden departure of former coach Will Wade during the 2025-26 season. What does the expansion news mean for the Wolfpack and its new coach?

New opportunities

The eight additional spots in the NCAA Tournament field certainly change the math of the oft-discussed bubble, which the last at-large teams battle over all season long. Despite looking to be off the bubble for most of the conference slate, a late collapse put Wade's Wolfpack on it, sending the group to Dayton, where they lost to Texas, ultimately missing out on the real feeling of March Madness.

While Dayton and a new site for more play-in games are the true changes to the tournament field, it creates more opportunities for the teams on the bubble to battle for a spot in the field of 64. In a more competitive version of the ACC, much like the one in 2025-26, 17 or 18-win teams will have a shot at making the NCAA Tournament. Gainey's eyes are on much stronger finishes than that, but the more chances his team gets at making the field, the better.

Raising the bar

For many programs around the country, simply making the NCAA Tournament is considered a successful season in some regards. For the high-major programs, including NC State, just making it to Dayton or the other First Four location is no longer an acceptable outcome, not that it ever was for some schools. The bar is higher now, a product of those increased opportunities.

There are financial motivations for coaches to make the play-in round and it's unclear whether Gainey's contract will be adjusted to take those into account for potential bonuses. Take the finances out of the conversation, though. Fans won't be satisfied with another finish to a season like the one the program had in Wade's only year in Raleigh. That will be Gainey's first task, erasing the disappointment of that finish and getting closer to the Final Four, like the miracle run in 2024.

Concentrated talent

There are concerns about what expansion means for low and mid-major programs around the country, especially after they've essentially been turned into feeder schools for the high-major teams with the introduction of the transfer portal. That's a blessing and a curse for a team like NC State, as there will be more players looking to play at the power conference level for a shot at a run through the NCAA Tournament.

However, it also means the competition level is likely to increase, especially with potential changes to the portal and roster construction looming as the government becomes more involved with regulating collegiate athletics. Gainey's ability to adapt will be tested early in his career as a head coach, but he seems to be up for the challenge.

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