Cal Baseball Still Has a Path to the NCAA Tournament

With the key losses through the transfer portal in the offseason, Cal’s freshman-laden opening-day baseball roster did not suggest a postseason berth was a reasonable goal. Not surprisingly the Bears were picked to finish 15th in the 16-team ACC in the preseason poll.

And when the Bears lost 10 games in a row in March, it seemed Cal would just quietly play out the season and call it a day, especially when its best hitter, Jacob French, was sidelined with an injury in late April.

But somehow, some way, Cal still has a shot at making the NCAA tournament as it heads into its final regular-season series – a three-game set in Berkeley against rival Stanford on Thursday, Friday and Saturday.

Cal has an overall record of 27-24 and an ACC record of 10-17, neither of which sounds like a postseason mark, but if you look at the teams that are projected to make the NCAA tournament, Cal is sitting right on the edge of an at-large berth.

USA Today’s baseball bracketology this week has 10 ACC teams in the 64-team NCAA tournament, and that includes Clemson, which is behind Cal in the ACC standings at 9-18 and has a marginally better overall record at 30-23.

Pittsburgh is projected as the first team out, and the Bears are tied with the Panthers in the ACC standings and swept Pitt in a three-game series in Pittsburgh this season.

Baseball America projects nine ACC teams to make the postseason field, but has Clemson and Pitt on the fringe.

D1 Baseball also has nine ACC teams in the tournament, but does not include Clemson or Pitt, listing Pitt just outside the field, which will include 35 at-large berths.

RPI is an important component in at-large selections, and Clemson, at 38, and Pitt, at 46, are slightly better than Cal’s RPI of 56.

But an RPI in the 40-to-55 range is generally good enough to at least put a team on the bubble, and Cal can improve its RPI in its final games.

Plus, Cal has seven Quad 1 wins, which helps, much like they do in the NCAA basketball tournament selections.

When Cal took two of three on the road last week from Virginia, which has an RPI this week of 23, the Bears suddenly became a postseason contender. Or so it would seem.

It’s still a long shot, but if the Bears can win at least two games against Stanford (26-23, 12-15 ACC, RPI) and win a few games in the ACC tournament starting next Tuesday in Charlotte, North Carolina, the Bears will at least pay attention when the NCAA tournament field is announced on Monday, May 25.

It’s a sizable challenge, but not impossible considering how the Bears have been playing lately, having won four of their past five games, including the two at Virginia.

Oliver de la Torre (5-5, 3.75 ERA), Gavin Eddy (6-3, 2.97 ERA) and Ethan Foley (4-3, 5.43 ERA) are expected to be the Cal’s starting pitchers this week, and they provide a solid rotation.

Eddy has been particularly effective lately, yielding just two earned runs while striking out 24 over 13 innings his last two starts combined. He was named ACC pitcher of the week on Monday after striking out 14 Virginia batters and allowing just one run and three hits over seven innings last Saturday.

Cal reliever Trent Roach has allowed just one earned run over his last eight appearances covering 11 1/3 innings. He pitched two hitless shutout innings to save the Bears' final game against Virginia.

Unfortunately French (.344 batting average, 4 home runs, 24 RBIs) won’t play in Thursday’s opener, is unlikely to play in the Stanford series and is questionable for the ACC tournament.

However, Hideki Prather, who is from Oakland and transferred from Clemson to Cal this season, is 8-for-20 with three home runs over the past five games. He’s hitting .332 with a team-leading 12 homers, and what makes him different is that he’s a catcher who bats leadoff.

Freshman shortstop Jett Kenady is the other hot Cal hitter. He is batting a team-leading .333 with 10 homers, and he is 8-for-21 with two homers in the past six games.

The odds are still against Cal getting into the postseason, and results elsewhere in the country have to play in Cal's favor for the Bears to have a shot at an at-large berth. But it would be amazing if this Cal squad becomes the first Bears team since 2019 to reach the NCAA tournament.

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