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Thunder vs. Lakers Prediction, Odds and Best Prop Bets for NBA Playoffs Game 3
In this story:
The Los Angeles Lakers’ backs are against the wall on Saturday night, as they trail the Oklahoma City Thunder 2-0 in the Western Conference semifinals.
Los Angeles is a home underdog for the third time this postseason in Game 3 of this series, and it won’t have Luka Doncic (hamstring) once again. Doncic’s status is truly up in the air for the rest of this series after he revealed earlier in the week that he was given an eight-week timeline to recover from this injury.
OKC won Game 1 and Game 2 by 18 points, putting up 125 points and a massive second half in Thursday’s win. The Lakers and Thunder have matched up six times this season (four regular season games, two playoff games) and OKC has gone 6-0 with five wins by 18 or more points .
So, it makes sense that the Thunder are sizable road favorites in Game 3.
LeBron James and Austin Reaves both played well in Game 3, but it wasn’t enough for the Lakers to pull off an upset. After taking a 3-0 series lead against Houston in the first round, the Lakers have lost four of five games and have only scored over 100 points in one of them (Game 2 against OKC).
Can they get back on track at home?
Here’s a breakdown of the odds, my favorite player prop and a prediction for Saturday’s Game 3.
Thunder vs. Lakers Odds, Spread and Total
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Spread
- Thunder -8.5 (-110)
- Lakers +8.5 (-110)
Moneyline
- Thunder: -375
- Lakers: +295
Total
- 211.5 (Over -110/Under -110)
Thunder vs. Lakers How to Watch
- Date: Saturday, May 9
- Time: 8:30 p.m. EST
- Venue: Crypto.com Arena
- How to Watch (TV): ABC
- Series: OKC leads 2-0
Thunder vs. Lakers Injury Reports
Thunder Injury Report
- Thomas Sorber -- out
- Jalen Williams -- out
Lakers Injury Report
- Luka Doncic -- out
- Jarred Vanderbilt -- questionable
Thunder vs. Lakers Best NBA Prop Bets
Lakers Best NBA Prop Bet
- LeBron James 20+ Points (-157)
Earlier today, I shared in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why James remains an elite prop target in Game 3:
James continues to hold off “Father Time,” dropping 20 or more points in six of his eight playoff games, including four in a row, heading into Game 3 on Saturday night.
The Lakers star has been able to dominate some of OKC’s smaller wing defenders in the post, and he’s averaging 25.0 points per game while shooting 60 percent from the field and 40 percent from 3 in this series.
So, I think it’s a discount to get him to score 20 or more points at home on Saturday. Austin Reaves’ presence has given James the ability to play off the ball with less defensive attention, and the star forward took advantage with several deep post-up catches in Game 2.
James only has two games this postseason where he failed to score 20 points – Game 1 against Houston when he had 19 and Game 4 against Houston when he scored 10 on just nine shots in a blowout loss.
I think this is a pretty safe play on Saturday night.
Thunder vs. Lakers Prediction and Pick
Even though Oklahoma City is going on the road for Game 3, I think this spread is way too short for a team that has won all six games against the Lakers in the 2025-26 season by nine or more points.
The Thunder have back-to-back 18-point wins, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander hasn’t even played at his peak level in this series. The star guard scored just 18 points in Game 1, and foul trouble limited his minutes (and scoring) in Game 2.
Still, OKC’s depth has proven to be the biggest difference in this series, and the Lakers simply don’t have enough offensive firepower with Doncic banged up.
There’s a chance the Lakers’ role guys look better at home, but both Marcus Smart and Rui Hachimura have played at a high level this postseason, and Hachimura was great shooting the ball in Games 1 and 2.
OKC has a net rating of plus-18.0 in the playoffs, and it has won every game by nine points. I don’t see that changing in Game 3 with the Lakers still at less than 100 percent.
Pick: Thunder -8.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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Peter is a senior editor for Sports Illustrated Betting. He has worked as a writer and editor for BetSided, NBC Sports, the Connecticut Sun and the Meriden Record-Journal covering the NBA, WNBA, NFL, MLB, and more. A New York City resident, he is a hoops fanatic with a soft spot for his New York Knicks.
Follow @peterdewey2