Road to the NBA Finals: NBA Playoff Predictions, Picks for Cavaliers vs. Pistons Game 5 on Wednesday, May 13

It doesn’t get much better than Game 5 of a playoff series that is tied at two games apiece, and that’s exactly what we have on Wednesday night, as the Cleveland Cavaliers hit the road to play the Detroit Pistons.

The winner of this series will take on the New York Knicks in the Eastern Conference Finals, and both teams would love to wrap things up in six games rather than going the distance for the second round in a row.

Cleveland and Detroit both won in seven games in the first round, and the Cavs (6-0 at home) have yet to win a game on the road (0-5) this postseason. So, it’s understandable that they’re underdogs in Detroit, where they lost Game 1 and Game 2 by 10 points each.

Cade Cunningham and the Pistons are 4-1 at home in the postseason, but they came up short in back-to-back games in Cleveland, getting blown out in the third quarter of Game 4 on Monday.

Donovan Mitchell (39 points in the second half, 43 overall) led the way for the Cavs, and Monday’s win marked the first time in the Mitchell era that Cleveland won two games in the second round of the postseason.

Can the Cavs pull off an upset in Game 5? Or, will the Pistons handle their business to get two shots at closing out this series?

As I’ve done all postseason, I’m betting on this game as part of SI Betting’s “Road to the NBa Finals” challenge, where I’m betting on every game of the playoffs. Here’s a quick reminder of the rules:

Bet on every game through the play-in tournament and playoffs
Bet can be a spread, total, moneyline, player prop or game prop
ENJOY POSTSEASON BASKETBALL!

This is a massive swing game on Wednesday, and I’ve decided that I’m going to bet on the total rather than a side in Game 5.

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Detroit Pistons UNDER 212.5 (-110)

Through four games in this series, the UNDER has hit twice (both games in Detroit) and the OVER has hit twice (both games in Cleveland). The total has changed quite a bit though since Game 1.

The total sat at 216.5 in Game 1 before it moved to 215.5 in Game 2. Since then, the total has stayed steady at 212.5, where it’s once again set for Game 5. These teams have combined for 212, 204, 225 and 215 points through four games.

However, Cleveland’s offensive rating falls off a cliff on the road, which is a major reason why I'm betting the UNDER with the series shifting back to Detroit.

The Cavs have the fifth-best offensive rating in the playoffs (113.2), but that number is much different at home (120.4) than it is on the road (104.4). In fact, the Cavs rank 11th in the NBA in road offensive rating during the playoffs, scoring 104 or fewer points in four of five games.

The only road game where they cleared 104 points was in Game 6 against Toronto, when they scored 110 points in an overtime loss. So, I’m not buying the Cavs against a Detroit team that was No. 2 in defensive rating in the regular season and is No. 3 in defensive rating during the postseason.

So far this postseason, the Pistons rank seventh in offensive rating 10th in effective field goal percentage and 14th in assist-to-turnover ratio on offense, making them an ideal UNDER team. Both games in Detroit to open this series fell short of this number, which contributed to the total dropping ahead of Games 3 and 4.

I lean with the Pistons to win this matchup since the Cavs have not won a road game all postseason, but Detroit’s offense has gone stagnant plenty of times (just look at the third quarter in Game 4) in this postseason.

The UNDER has hit in the majority of the Pistons’ games this season, including 25 of their 46 games at home. I’ll gladly fade these offenses in Game 5.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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