PGA Championship Dark Horse Picks, Sleepers and Long Shot Predictions

Rory McIlroy captured the first men's major golf tournament of the season, winning the Masters for the second straight year. Now it’s time to move on to the PGA Championship, which will take place at Aronimink for the first time since 1962.

It's not unheard of for golfers with long odds to win a major. J.J. Spaun won the U.S. Open last year, Wyndham Clark and Brian Harman won majors in 2023, and Phil Mickelson became the oldest major-winner when he won the PGA Championship in 2021.

Could a long-shot golfer win the 2026 edition of the event? Let's take a look at a few names I'm targeting further down the odds list.

PGA Championship Dark Horse Bets

Rickie Fowler +6600 (DraftKings)

My biggest bet of the week is on Scottie Scheffler to repeat as champion, but my favorite value play has to be Rickie Fowler at 66-1.

He's still seeking his first career major at 37 years old. He has finished in the top 10 at a major on 13 different occasions, including three separate runner-up finishes. His latest top five came at the 2023 U.S. Open.

With that being said, I think now is the time he finally gets the job done. He's coming into this week in peak form, posting three-straight top 10 finishes at signature events. He's also fifth in the field in total strokes gained over the past 30 days.

He also has experience at Aronimink, finishing T8 when the BMW Championship was hosted here in 2018.

Harry Hall +14000 (DraftKings)

Harry Hall has one of the best course fits for Aronimink, according to DataGolf.com, with a strokes-gained adjustment of +0.10 compared to the rest of the field. His short game numbers and approach play makes him an interesting dark horse contender this week.

He's coming into this event off a T8 performance at the Truist Championship, where he gained +1.24 strokes per round with his irons, his best approach performance since last April's Valero Texas Open. If he can carry that into this week, he could be in contention on the weekend.

Alex Smalley +15000 (FanDuel)

Alex Smalley's recent numbers are similar to Fowler's, but are slightly worse for significantly longer odds. He has also played well recently, posting five-straight finishes of T21 or better, including a T7 finish at the Cadillac Championship.

He's 21st in the field this week in strokes-gained tee to green, and while those numbers don't jump off the page, they point to him having some longshot value at 150-1. His numbers over the past three months are better than some big names in the field, including the likes of Bryson DeChambeau and Russell Henley.

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