PGA Championship First-Round Leader Pick and Score Prediction

If you don't want to wait for all four rounds to be completed to find out if your PGA Championship bet is a winner or not, let me introduce you to the first-round leader market. For this type of bet, all that matters is the opening round.

With an increased level of variance in a single round, it's a great opportunity to bet on the top golfers at longer odds, or to bet on dark horse golfers that you think will get off to a hot start, but you don't have the faith in to close out a major championship on the weekend.

For this week's event, I'm going to abide by the latter of the two aforementioned strategies. I have bets on two golfers further down the odds list who I think can get off to a hot start.

PGA Championship first round leader best bets

Odds via BetMGM Sportsbook

Alex Smalley +12500

Alex Smalley enters this week tied for sixth on the PGA Tour in Round 1 scoring average at 69.00. He’s also 13th in the field in true strokes gained in the opening round of tournaments over the past six months. He hasn't finished outside the top 21 in his last five starts, including an impressive T7 finish at the Cadillac Championship, where he gained +1.73 strokes on the field with his approach play.

He doesn't have a length major championship history, but he did finish T23 at the 2023 PGA Championship and T28 at last year's edition of the event. That's enough for me to bet him at 125-1 to lead the field after Thursday.

Nick Taylor +12500

If you look at the top players on the PGA Tour in terms of true total strokes gained in the opening round, you likely won't be surprised to hear the top three names over the past six months: Cameron Young (+2.74), Xander Schauffele (+2.63), and Rory McIlroy (+2.55). What you would be surprised to hear is that it's the Canadian Nick Taylor who's fourth on that list at +2.39.

The Canadian has brought his best stuff on Thursdays this season, and now he's coming into this week's event off a T9 finish at the Cadillac Championship and a T14 finish at the Truist Championship.

Bet him at 125-1 to lead this week's PGA Championship after the first round.

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