Padres vs. Brewers Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers, Prop Bets for Thursday, May 14

The San Diego Padres have got off to a hot start to the season, and are, for the moment, surprisingly leading the National League West over the Los Angeles Dodgers at 25-17.

This afternoon, they'll wrap up their three-game series against the Milwaukee Brewers. The series is tied 1-1, with the Brewers winning the first game by a score of 6-4, and then the Padres bounced back with a 3-1 win on Wednesday. Today's matinee matchup will serve as the rubber match.

Let's dive into the odds and my best bet for today's series finale.

Padres vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Run Line

Padres +1.5 (-172)
Brewers -1.5 (+142)

Moneyline

Padres +124
Brewers -146

Total

OVER 8 (-104)
UNDER 8 (-118)

Padres vs. Brewers Probable Pitchers

San Diego: Griffin Canning, RHP (0-1, 6.75 ERA)
Milwaukee: Kyle Harrison, LHP (3-1, 2.41 ERA)

Padres vs. Brewers How to Watch

Date: Thursday, May 14
Time: 1:40 p.m. ET
Venue: American Family Field
How to Watch (TV): Padres.TV Presented by UC San Diego Health, Brewers.TV
Padres record: 25-17
Brewers record: 23-17

Padres vs. Brewers Best Prop Bet

Kyle Harrison OVER 15.5 Outs Recorded (-114)

The Padres have struggled against left-handed pitchers this season, ranking 27th in wRC+. I think that'll lead to the Brewers' lefty starter, Kyle Harrison, having a long outing. With his outs total set at 15.5, he'll have to pitch at least 5.1 innings for this bet to cash. He has lasted 6.0 innings in two of his last three starts.

Padres vs. Brewers Prediction and Pick

As I wrote above, the Padres have struggled against lefties in 2026. Their OPS falls from .674 against right-handed pitchers to .616 against left-handed pitchers. Overall, their offense hasn't been nearly as good as their record would indicate. They rank just 28th in wRC+ over the past 30 days.

In this game, they face a Brewers team that can match them from a pitching perspective, but also does a better job of putting up runs. I have more faith in the Brewers' starter today as well, with Kyle Harrison (2.41 ERA) taking on Griffin Canning (6.75 ERA).

Give me the Brewers as home favorites this afternoon.

Pick: Brewers -146 via FanDuel

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