Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Donovan Mitchell, Cavs vs. Pistons Game 5)

Game 5. Tied 2-2. What more could we ask for, NBA fans?

That’s the scenario on Wednesday night, as the NBA Playoffs gift us a standalone matchup between the Cleveland Cavaliers and Detroit Pistons with a trip to the Eastern Conference Finals on the line over the next few days.

Cleveland and Detroit traded home wins to open this series, turning a best-of-seven matchup into a best-of-three ahead of Game 5.

Donovan Mitchell (43 points, 39 in the second half) dominated Game 4 for the Cavs to even the series on Monday, and he’s featured in today’s Peter’s Points as my favorite player prop target.

The Cavs have yet to win a road game in the playoffs – they’ve also gone undefeated at home – but that’ll need to change if they want to make the Eastern Conference Finals for the first time since LeBron James left for the Los Angeles Lakers.

Oddsmakers have set the Pistons as favorites on Wednesday night, but I’m targeting a Mitchell prop and the total for today’s best bets. Here’s a look at the analysis behind each play for May 13’s playoff action.

1 Season, 600 Bets: NBA Betting Record

2025-26 season record: 294-255 (-5.56 units)
2024-25 season record: 281-293-5 (-4.94 units)
OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1585-1491-27 (+27.59 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Donovan Mitchell OVER 26.5 Points (-120)
Cleveland Cavaliers-Detroit Pistons UNDER 212.5 (-110)

Donovan Mitchell OVER 26.5 Points (-120)

This postseason, Mitchell has five 30-point games, including three in a row in this series.

The star guard has always shown up in the postseason, averaging 28.1 points per game for his career even though he’s never made a Conference Finals appearance. Mitchell averaged over 29 points per game in each of the Cavs’ last two playoff runs, but that number has dropped to 26.7 per game in the 2026 postseason.

Despite that, I’m buying the seven-time All-Star in Game 5.

Mitchell has 31, 35 and 43 points in his last three games, and he seems to have realized that he has to carry this Cavs offense, which has underperformed in the playoffs. Mitchell has taken 24 or more shots in three straight games, and he’s now averaging 33.0 points per game while shooting 49.5 percent from the field in this series.

After taking just two free throws in Game 1, Mitchell has been much more aggressive getting to the line for 32 attempts over the last three games. As long as he maintains this aggression on the offensive end, this line is too low for him in Game 5.

Cleveland Cavaliers-Detroit Pistons UNDER 212.5 (-110)

The two games in Detroit have been much lower-scoring in this series, and it’s become pretty clear why.

Cleveland’s offensive rating falls off a cliff on the road, which is a major reason why I'm betting the UNDER with the series shifting back to Detroit.

The Cavs have the fifth-best offensive rating in the playoffs (113.2), but that number is much different at home (120.4) than it is on the road (104.4). In fact, the Cavs rank 11th in the NBA in road offensive rating during the playoffs, scoring 104 or fewer points in four of five games.

The only road game where they cleared 104 points was in Game 6 against Toronto, when they scored 110 points in an overtime loss. So, I’m not buying the Cavs against a Detroit team that was No. 2 in defensive rating in the regular season and is No. 3 in defensive rating during the postseason.

Through four games in this series, the UNDER has hit twice (both games in Detroit) and the total has dropped as the series has gone on.

After closing at 216.5 in Game 1, the total moved to 215.5 in Game 2. Since then, it has been steady at 212.5, where it’s once again set for Game 5. These teams have combined for 212, 204, 225 and 215 points through four games.

So far this postseason, the Pistons rank seventh in offensive rating 10th in effective field goal percentage and 14th in assist-to-turnover ratio on offense, making them an ideal UNDER team with how great their defense has been.

With Detroit’s offense falling apart at points this postseason – just look at the third quarter of Game 4 for evidence – I’ll gladly fade both of these teams on that end of the floor in Game 5.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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