Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Anthony Edwards, Timberwolves vs. Spurs Game 5)

The Western Conference semifinal series between the Minnesota Timberwolves and San Antonio Spurs has gone from a best-of-seven to a best-of-three, as Anthony Edwards and company evened things up on Sunday night.

Now, Minnesota heads back on the road for Tuesday’s Game 5, where the Spurs are double-digit favorites after Victor Wembanyama was cleared of any further discipline after he was ejected for a Flagrant 2 foul in Game 4.

The Spurs split the first two games of this series at home, losing by two in Game 1 before picking up a 38-point win in Game 2. San Antonio closed out the Portland Trail Blazers in five games in the first round, but this series will at least reach Game 6 on Friday night.

Even with just one game on Tuesday, I’m eyeing a few plays for today’s edition of Peter’s Points.

1 Season, 600 Bets: NBA Betting Record

2025-26 season record: 292-252 (-4.74 units)
2024-25 season record: 281-293-5 (-4.94 units)
OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1583-1488-27 (+28.41 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Minnesota Timberwolves +10.5 (-110) vs. San Antonio Spurs
Anthony Edwards OVER 5.5 Rebounds (-144)

Minnesota Timberwolves +10.5 (-110) vs. San Antonio Spurs

I think the Timberwolves are grossly undervalued in Game 5, and there’s a case to be made that they can pull off the upset.

Minnesota already has a win under its belt in San Antonio, and it held off the Spurs at home in Game 4 for a huge win to even this series. San Antonio may be the better team in this series, but the numbers certainly favor San Antonio much more because of the 38-point win in Game 2.

Anthony Edwards and Ayo Dosunmu returning to the starting lineup certainly raises Minnesota’s ceiling, and I’m not going to underestimate the importance of this team making back-to-back Western Conference Finals appearances. The Spurs don’t have nearly as much experience, and Wemby’s Flagrant 2 in Game 4 could be a turning point in this series.

Not only did it help the Wolves tie things up, but it certainly has created some sort of bad blood between these teams – something that clearly helped Minnesota in the Denver series. Now, the Wolves have a chance to play spoiler on the road in Game 5, and all the pressure is on the Spurs to win and set up a close out scenario in Game 6.

The Wolves remain one of the better defensive teams in the league, and Edwards’ recent surge (32 points in Game 3, 36 in Game 4) makes them a much more formidable opponent than when he was on a minutes limit.

Game 2 was a complete throwaway game from Minnesota after it stole Game 1, and it already has either won or kept the other three games within 10 points. I’m buying the Wolves to at least cover on Tuesday night.

Anthony Edwards OVER 5.5 Rebounds (-144)

Anthony Edwards has spent a lot of this postseason either on a minutes restriction or playing limited time due to multiple knee issues.

However, he’s returned to the starting line up in the last two games in this series, grabbing 14 and six rebounds while playing over 40 minutes in each matchup. So, I’m betting on him in one of the best player prop trends in playoff basketball over the last few years.

Edwards is averaging 6.6 rebounds per game in his playoff career, putting up 7.0, 7.8 and 6.6 (this season) rebounds per game in his last three playoff runs. The star guard takes things up a level on the glass in the postseason, and he’s now playing a ton of minutes with a trip to the Western Conference Finals on the line.

The former No. 1 overall pick is averaging over 10 rebound chances per game in this playoff run, and he has six or more boards in 26 of his 39 playoff games since the 2023-24 season. Edwards is averaging 7.2 boards per game during that stretch.

He’s a must-bet on Tuesday night with a chance to take a 3-2 series lead.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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