Lynx vs. Mercury Prediction, Odds, Best WNBA Prop Bet for Tuesday, May 12

Two Western Conference contenders face off on Tuesday, May 12, though the Minnesota Lynx will be short-handed in this matchup with the Phoenix Mercury.

Napheesa Collier (ankle) is set to miss the start of the season, and the Lynx dropped their season opener against the Atlanta Dream without her. Still, No. 2 overall pick Olivia Miles had a huge game (21 points, eight assists) and should be an immediate impact player in her first season.

The Mercury, on the other hand, are 1-1 this season after they blew out the Las Vegas Aces on Saturday before losing the back end of a back-to-back to the Golden State Valkyries. After losing Satou Sabally in free agency, the Mercury are expecting big things from Alyssa Thomas and Kahleah Copper in the 2026 season.

Oddsmakers have Phoenix favored at home in this matchup, but should bettors trust it to cover after losing on Sunday?

Let’s dive into the odds, my favorite player prop (which happens to be for Miles) and a prediction for this WNBA showdown.

Lynx vs. Mercury Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Lynx +3.5 (-110)
Mercury -3.5 (-110)

Moneyline

Lynx: +145
Mercury: -175

Total

169.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

Lynx vs. Mercury How to Watch

Date: Tuesday, May 12
Time: 10:00 p.m. EST
Venue: Mortgage Matchup Center
How to Watch (TV): Arizona’s Family 3TV, Victory+ Sports Network
Lynx record: 0-1
Mercury record: 1-1

Lynx vs. Mercury Injury Reports

Lynx Injury Report

Dorka Juhasz -- out
Napheesa Collier -- out

Mercury Injury Report

Sami Whitcomb -- out

Lynx vs. Mercury Best WNBA Prop Bet

Lynx Best WNBA Prop Bet

Olivia Miles OVER 5.5 Assists (-140)

Earlier today, I shared in my WNBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why Miles is undervalued in this prop market:

No. 2 overall pick Olivia Miles had a strong debut in a one-point loss to Atlanta, dropping 21 points, three rebounds and eight assists while playing over 33 minutes.

Miles earned the start and immediately showed why she’s one of the best point guard prospects in recent years, turning the ball over just three times while racking up two steals and two blocks while shooting 6-for-14 from the field.

I think Miles is worth a look in the prop market against Phoenix, which is allowing 22.0 assists per game through two games. If Miles is going to start and play heavy minutes, she’s too good of a passer to fade at this number.

Lynx vs. Mercury Prediction and Pick

The Mercury have a great win under their belt over the Aces to open the season, and I think they were put in a tough spot by the league to remain on the road for a back-to-back to open the season.

Phoenix still has two clear-cut All-Stars in Thomas and Copper, and the Lynx aren’t the same team with Collier out of the lineup and Alanna Smith now in Dallas.

Minnesota did hang around at home with a talented Atlanta squad, but the Mercury were an elite home team in 2025, winning 15 of 22 home games in the regular season.

Minnesota is relying heavily on the guard play of Miles, Courtney Williams and Kayla McBride, and I think Phoenix will be in a much better spot to compete – like it did against the Aces – after having Monday off.

Pick: Mercury -3.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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