Liberty vs. Fire Prediction, Odds, Best WNBA Prop Bet for Tuesday, May 12

Breanna Stewart and the New York Liberty are off to a 2-0 start in the 2026 WNBA season, and they’ve done it without two key pieces of their starting lineup.

Guard Sabrina Ionescu and forward Satou Sabally (an offseason addition) have both missed the first two games of the season, and they are listed as out for Tuesday's matchup with the Portland Fire.

Portland dropped its season opener against the Chicago Sky, and the expansion team is certainly starved for offensive talent in its first season. The Fire are set as massive underdogs at home in Tuesday’s matchup, but can they cover against the Liberty?

New York has one blowout win already this season, and it has title expectations after coming up short in the playoffs in 2025.

Let’s take a look at the odds, a player prop to bet and my prediction for Tuesday’s contest.

Liberty vs. Fire Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Liberty -13.5 (-105)
Fire +13.5 (-115)

Moneyline

Liberty: -800
Fire: +550

Total

173.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Liberty vs. Fire How to Watch

Date: Tuesday, May 12
Time: 10:00 p.m. EST
Venue: Moda Center
How to Watch (TV): Fox 12 Plus, Liberty Live, WWOR-TV
Liberty record: 2-0
Fire record: 0-1

Liberty vs. Fire Injury Reports

Liberty Injury Report

Satou Sabally -- out
Sabrina Ionescu -- out
Marine Fauthoux -- out
Rebecca Allen -- out

Fire Injury Report

Karlie Samuelson -- out
Kamiah Smalls -- questionable
Sug Sutton -- questionable

Liberty vs. Fire Best WNBA Prop Bet

Liberty Best WNBA Prop Bet

Breanna Stewart UNDER 1.5 3-Pointers Made (-160)

Stewart is still one of the best players in the WNBA, but her shooting has fallen off a cliff in recent seasons.

Stewart shot 35.5 percent from 3 in her first season with the Liberty (2023), but since then she’s knocked down just 29.5 percent and 24.1 percent of her 3-pointers in the last two seasons. Stewie is also averaging just 1.4 3s per game as a member of the Liberty.

This season, the former league MVP is 1-for-8 from beyond the arc, attempting just four shots from deep in each game. I’m fading her against the Fire, who allowed just six 3-pointers in their season-opening loss to Chicago.

Liberty vs. Fire Prediction and Pick

Earlier today, I shared in my WNBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why New York should win big on the road:

The Liberty went to overtime in a win over Washington on Sunday, but they dominated the Connecticut Sun in their season opener, winning by 31 points.

New York is a significantly more talented team than the Fire, who lost by 15 points to the new-look Chicago Sky in their opener. Portland ranks 11th in the W in offensive rating after one game, and the Liberty have one of the most dynamic offensive attacks in the league with Stewart and Jonquel Jones – two former league MVPs – leading the way.

There isn’t a ton of date for the Fire to base this play on, but I’m going to trust the more talented team early in the season. The Liberty should roll on Tuesday, especially if Marine Johannes continues to shoot the lights out from 3.

Pick: Liberty -13.5 (-105 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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