Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks Today (Target Elly De La Cruz, Freddie Freeman, Pirates Slugger)

The 2026 MLB season is in full swing, and there are a ton of ways to get involved in the action. One of them is betting on player props, and here at SI Betting, we specifically target home run props each day to give bettors a look at some long shot picks.

After all, who doesn’t love watching some of the best hitters in baseball leave the yard, especially when they’re set at 3/1, 4/1 or more to do so?

With all 30 teams in action on Tuesday night, there are a ton of games to consider when it comes to the home run prop market, but I’ve narrowed things down to my three favorite plays.

Cincinnati Reds shortstop Elly De La Cruz is the headliner for Tuesday’s action, as he takes on a struggling starter in Washington Nationals righty Miles Mikolas.

In addition to De La Cruz, there are two left-hander power bats that I’m betting on, including one in the San Francisco Giants-Los Angeles Dodgers matchup later on tonight.

Let’s take a look at the odds behind each of these plays for May 12.

Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks for Tuesday, May 12

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Brandon Lowe to Hit a Home Run (+425)

Pittsburgh Pirates second baseman Brandon Lowe has homered 10 times in the 2026 season, and I’m buying him on Tuesday against the Colorado Rockies and righty Michael Lorenzen.

Lowe is hitting .308 with three home runs over the last two weeks, and he’s been even better over the last seven days, hitting .350 with two homers and an OPS of 1.191. On top of that, Lowe has crushed right-handed pitching in 2026.

He’s hitting .299 with eight of his 10 home runs, and a 1.074 OPS, against righties, making him a great target against the struggling Lorenzen.

The Rockies starter has a 6.92 ERA in the 2026 campaign and has given up seven home runs in nine appearances. On top of that, Lowe has found some success against Lorenzen in his career, going 2-for-8 with a double and a homer, posting a 1.083 OPS.

At +425, Lowe is worth a bet to stay hot on Tuesday.

Elly De La Cruz to Hit a Home Run (+351)

De La Cruz has been awesome in the 2026 season for the Reds, hitting .288 with 10 home runs and an .875 OPS. The Reds star is hitting .320 with one homer over the last two weeks, and he should be in a great spot to go deep against Washington.

Mikolas enters this start with a 7.44 ERA, and he’s given up nine home runs in eight outings in 2026. The Nationals’ bullpen isn’t much better, as it has a 4.84 ERA and has given up 28 home runs. The Nats rank 27th in the league in bullpen ERA and only the Houston bullpen has allowed more homers.

Elly has not homered against Mikolas in his career, but the star shortstop is hitting .333 against him, going 5-for-15 with a double, a triple and a .945 OPS. De La Cruz has homered five times against righties and five times against lefties this season, making him a pretty matchup-proof pick on Tuesday night.

Freddie Freeman to Hit a Home Run (+467)

Los Angeles Dodgers star Freddie Freeman has a favorable matchup on Tuesday night, as the San Francisco Giants are set to start the struggling Adrian Houser.

This season, Houser has given up seven home runs in seven appearances, posting a 6.19 ERA. The Giants are just 1-6 when the righty is on the mound in 2026.

Freeman is 4-for-12 with two doubles, one home run and a 1.179 OPS against Houser in his career, and I think he’s a little undervalued at this price on May 12.

The Dodgers first baseman has a .292 batting average and an .806 OPS against righties this season, and he’s upped his OPS to .898 – homering once – over the last week.

There are a ton of options to take in a vaunted Dodgers lineup, but Freeman’s success against Houser in his career makes him an attractive option at nearly 5/1.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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